تحذير من مخاطر التداول الداخلي في سوق التنبؤ: تواجد الحدود الأخلاقية والمخاطر القانونية

【Blockchain Rhythm】The rapid development of prediction markets has attracted numerous participants, but the accompanying risks cannot be overlooked. Recently, industry veterans have publicly expressed strong disapproval of insider trading in prediction markets.

This industry voice has highlighted a critical issue: if insider trading is gradually accepted in prediction markets, it could be redefined as a “feature” rather than a flaw. This shift would be extremely dangerous.

Specifically, on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, once someone possesses non-public information and conducts trades, such behavior already constitutes insider trading. Interestingly, even if a person merely catches a whiff of non-public information, they should firmly avoid engaging in related markets.

From a legal perspective, insider traders may potentially escape punishment, but they could also face serious legal troubles. Some have already faced severe consequences for insider trading on prediction markets. Taking such risks simply isn’t worth it.

More importantly, there are ethical considerations. Speculating on opportunities where profits are guaranteed is essentially a manifestation of moral degradation—extracting profits from ordinary participants who lack information advantages. This trading method is unacceptable from any perspective. The long-term healthy development of prediction markets requires participants to collectively maintain compliance awareness and ethical standards.