#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Crypto Daily(04.10): Bitcoin prices highly tied to geopolitical situations and oil prices, Iran promotes BTC payments for oil transit fees
1. Bitcoin Price Trends and Market Analysis
1. Recent Bitcoin prices are directly affected by US-Iran geopolitical conflicts and oil price fluctuations, with high volatility: optimistic ceasefire sentiments have pushed BTC past $70k and $72k multiple times. If the ceasefire breaks down and oil prices rise, BTC faces a correction pressure, with its trend closely linked to global risk appetite and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
2. Market institutions have clear disagreements on future trends: bullish views believe that if oil prices continue to fall, prompting the Fed to cut rates early, combined with $6 billion in short positions in the $72,000–$73.5k range, a breakout could trigger chain liquidations, pushing BTC to $80k; on-chain data also shows short-term traders are exiting while long-term holders continue accumulating, building momentum for future gains.
3. Bearish opinions argue that if BTC cannot hold above $75k, it may fall back to $10k, as market confidence remains fragile. Short-term technicals show BTC's current volatility range is between $69k and $73k, with support around $69,000 and key resistance at $73,000–$76k. Investors should watch for breakthroughs and support levels, as short-term volatility risks remain high.
2. Bitcoin ETF and Traditional Institutional Deployment Dynamics
1. Morgan Stanley's new Bitcoin ETF MSBT performed well on its first day, with approximately $30.6 million in inflows. This ETF charges a 0.14% fee, making it the lowest-cost spot Bitcoin ETF in the US market, leveraging Morgan Stanley’s extensive wealth advisory network for channel advantages.
2. Recently, overall crypto ETF funds have been flowing out: on April 7, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $159 million, Ethereum ETFs about $64.67 million, with only niche tokens like Ripple experiencing small net inflows, reflecting lingering market confidence fragility.
3. Major financial institutions continue to push crypto adoption: Charles Schwab plans to pilot spot BTC and ETH trading in Q2 2026, CME Group plans to launch new crypto futures in May, indicating increasing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin.
3. Strategic Use of Bitcoin in Geopolitics
1. During the US-Iran ceasefire, Iran announced that oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz would pay tolls in Bitcoin, charging $1 per barrel of oil, using Bitcoin’s peer-to-peer, untraceable features to evade US financial sanctions. Empty tankers can pass freely.
2. This event marks the first time a sovereign nation has used cryptocurrency as a strategic tool in geopolitical games, breaking the notion of crypto solely as a financial asset. It signifies that crypto technology has officially entered national-level geopolitical finance practices and also reflects cracks in the traditional petrodollar system.
4. Changes in Bitcoin Holdings by Various Entities
1. Bhutan continues to sell off Bitcoin reserves accumulated through national hydroelectric mining. As of April 2026, holdings have decreased from about 13k BTC at the end of 2024 to less than 4,000 BTC, with a total outflow of over 9,000 BTC. Bhutan remains the fifth-largest sovereign holder of Bitcoin globally.
2. Long-term bullish Bitcoin supporter MicroStrategy continues to increase holdings, recently investing an additional $330 million to buy BTC. Through issuing preferred stock, Strategy can raise funds to purchase over 2,500 BTC; meanwhile, mining firm Core Scientific plans to liquidate nearly all its Bitcoin reserves by 2026 to fund AI transformation.
5. Bitcoin Security and Risk Events
1. Bitcoin ATM operator Bitcoin Depot was hacked, with hackers stealing about 50.9 BTC worth approximately $3.66 million. The incident did not affect user platforms or data. The company has initiated emergency response and notified law enforcement.
2. Quantum computing expert John M. Martinis warned that Bitcoin faces quantum attack risks; quantum computers could crack Bitcoin’s elliptic curve encryption sooner than expected. Upgrading Bitcoin’s distributed network infrastructure is challenging, so early anti-quantum preparations are necessary.
3. South Korean exchange Bit mistakenly awarded 620k KRW in promotions as 620k BTC. Ultimately, 7 BTC (~$490k) could not be recovered. The exchange has initiated asset preservation procedures and plans to sue users who did not return the coins.
6. Historical Review of Bitcoin Industry Development
The 12-year development from Bitcoin’s genesis block in 2009 to mainstream institutional acceptance records Bitcoin’s evolution from a geek experiment to a global mainstream digital asset, including key milestones such as early trading, mining technology evolution, and institutional entry.
