For a long time, people have thought of September as the "worst month" for the market, as traders often prepare for a seasonal fall as if it is bound to happen.
However, new research shows that these calendar-based stories are actually more superstition than signal, and holding them may even cause investors to lose money.
The Legend of the Weakness of September
On September 3rd, the investment service provider Market Radar sought to break the popular narrative "Sell in September". In a detailed post, the analysts of this platform emphasized that most seasonal charts are based on averages, which can be easily influenced by unusual factors such as crashes or abnormal price spikes.
However, when measured by median, which is a better measure of normal returns according to Market Radar, the picture will change significantly. For example, the median return for September is only -0.3%, far from the forecast of a certain recession.
The company emphasized that even with median-based analysis, there was no month that showed consistent predictive value. The win rate across all months fluctuated almost like a coin toss, with December only reaching ~59% and November falling to ~41%.
The post notes that: "If calculating by effective season, you would expect a win rate higher than 50%. Instead, most months are indistinguishable from random guessing."
The research also applies statistical significance tests, showing that each month is above the normal random threshold (p = 0.05). In other words, seasonal patterns can clearly be interpreted more as noise than as recurring signals. Therefore, what appears to be the "weakness of September" is actually just part of a broader distribution of results.
Moreover, Market Radar argues that the smooth seasonal charts simply reflect the natural upward trend of the market over time. Investors often interpret these neat straight lines as an underlying rhythm, but in reality, they merely reflect the fact that stocks tend to rise more than they fall.
"The market does not move to the rhythm of the calendar," the company concluded. "It fluctuates based on growth, inflation, and liquidity. Seasonality is just noise. Macroeconomics is the signal."
This skepticism arises as many analysts continue to warn about the historical difficulties of Bitcoin in September. As CryptoPotato reported earlier, this asset has delivered negative returns in eight of the last twelve years.
Similarly, another report indicates that the monthly high or low of BTC tends to occur within the first 12 days, with 2017 and 2021 witnessing a decline of more than 7% during bullish cycles. Although this data contributes to the "Septembear" label, critics argue that these figures lack predictive weight.
Price Movement of Bitcoin and What is Coming Next
In the past 24 hours, the price of BTC has fluctuated between 108,538 dollars and 111,640 dollars, possibly indicating that investors are cautious as the new month begins. Ultimately, the price has stabilized at 110,500 dollars, rising slightly by 0.4% compared to the same time yesterday.
Although this asset has struggled to return to the peak level of $124,000 in mid-August, falling nearly 11% from its all-time high, its performance over a longer period is much more positive.
This number one cryptocurrency has increased by nearly 88% compared to the same period last year, with its dominance still strong compared to altcoins, indicating that it is a relatively safe haven during times of high volatility.
Analysts note that selling pressure from miners in August, coupled with rising electricity costs, has put pressure on prices, but this impact tends to decrease as we move into the fall.
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"Is September Really the 'Nightmare' of the Market? New Research Reveals Surprising Truth"
For a long time, people have thought of September as the "worst month" for the market, as traders often prepare for a seasonal fall as if it is bound to happen. However, new research shows that these calendar-based stories are actually more superstition than signal, and holding them may even cause investors to lose money. The Legend of the Weakness of September On September 3rd, the investment service provider Market Radar sought to break the popular narrative "Sell in September". In a detailed post, the analysts of this platform emphasized that most seasonal charts are based on averages, which can be easily influenced by unusual factors such as crashes or abnormal price spikes. However, when measured by median, which is a better measure of normal returns according to Market Radar, the picture will change significantly. For example, the median return for September is only -0.3%, far from the forecast of a certain recession. The company emphasized that even with median-based analysis, there was no month that showed consistent predictive value. The win rate across all months fluctuated almost like a coin toss, with December only reaching ~59% and November falling to ~41%. The post notes that: "If calculating by effective season, you would expect a win rate higher than 50%. Instead, most months are indistinguishable from random guessing." The research also applies statistical significance tests, showing that each month is above the normal random threshold (p = 0.05). In other words, seasonal patterns can clearly be interpreted more as noise than as recurring signals. Therefore, what appears to be the "weakness of September" is actually just part of a broader distribution of results. Moreover, Market Radar argues that the smooth seasonal charts simply reflect the natural upward trend of the market over time. Investors often interpret these neat straight lines as an underlying rhythm, but in reality, they merely reflect the fact that stocks tend to rise more than they fall. "The market does not move to the rhythm of the calendar," the company concluded. "It fluctuates based on growth, inflation, and liquidity. Seasonality is just noise. Macroeconomics is the signal." This skepticism arises as many analysts continue to warn about the historical difficulties of Bitcoin in September. As CryptoPotato reported earlier, this asset has delivered negative returns in eight of the last twelve years. Similarly, another report indicates that the monthly high or low of BTC tends to occur within the first 12 days, with 2017 and 2021 witnessing a decline of more than 7% during bullish cycles. Although this data contributes to the "Septembear" label, critics argue that these figures lack predictive weight. Price Movement of Bitcoin and What is Coming Next In the past 24 hours, the price of BTC has fluctuated between 108,538 dollars and 111,640 dollars, possibly indicating that investors are cautious as the new month begins. Ultimately, the price has stabilized at 110,500 dollars, rising slightly by 0.4% compared to the same time yesterday. Although this asset has struggled to return to the peak level of $124,000 in mid-August, falling nearly 11% from its all-time high, its performance over a longer period is much more positive. This number one cryptocurrency has increased by nearly 88% compared to the same period last year, with its dominance still strong compared to altcoins, indicating that it is a relatively safe haven during times of high volatility. Analysts note that selling pressure from miners in August, coupled with rising electricity costs, has put pressure on prices, but this impact tends to decrease as we move into the fall.