Market Outlook for the Next Month: Challenges and Opportunities Coexist

In the coming weeks, the cryptocurrency market may experience a period of significant volatility. Investors need to be mentally prepared and also recognize that this could be a rare opportunity.

Market Forecast

• In the short term, spot positions may face significant retracement risks. Investors need to assess whether to take risk mitigation measures in advance.

• If one can persevere through this difficult period, some key cryptocurrencies may perform well in the next wave of increases, potentially even offsetting previous losses.

• The market is expected to enter a new upward phase in the next 4 to 8 weeks. This prediction is based on several factors, including Bitcoin's high dominance, seasonal factors, the potential increase in the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio, and the rotation of market funds. In addition, the relatively friendly policy environment and minimal macroeconomic resistance create favorable conditions for the market.

Investment Strategy Suggestions

1. In the next wave of rising prices, investors should gradually shift to a selling role. If they choose to continue holding during a downturn, then they should formulate an exit plan to gradually transition to safer assets.

2. Safer assets mainly include Bitcoin and stablecoins.

3. As the market cycle progresses, investors need to gradually reduce risk, scale down their positions, and slowly exit the market through systematic investment rather than liquidating their positions all at once.

4. From now on, the market may be more suitable for traders rather than long-term holders. Certain coins may attract a large amount of buying interest, while others may rise slowly.

5. It is difficult to predict which coins or sectors will become market leaders. There may be sector rotations, but not a全面上涨.

6. Do not cling to a certain cryptocurrency for unrealistic target prices. Many cryptocurrencies may find it difficult to reach their historical highs again. You should follow the market trends and take profits in a timely manner.

7. If the portfolio is highly diversified, it is recommended to sell 50-75% or more of the holdings during the next wave of increase when the rotation ends.

8. In the next period, efforts should be made to consolidate investments, reduce the number of new positions, and lower the overall variety of holdings.

9. The timing of the next significant correction is hard to determine and may take another 3-6 months.

10. The market may enter what is known as a "super cycle", but it is still advisable to proceed with caution.

11. The ideal investment portfolio management goal is to control the drawdown from the historical peak to a maximum of about 30%, with a maximum acceptable drawdown of 50%.

12. Continuously monitor market data and constantly reassess the peak and end points of the market cycle. Stay alert and adjust strategies based on actual conditions.

Finally, emphasize the importance of independent research. Everyone's trading strategy is different, and do not blindly follow the advice of others. If you can exit the market with a considerable profit, you are already a successful investor.