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Good ☀morning, hardcore fan, check in 👍, like, and make a fortune 🍗🍗🌹🌹
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Last week, Favourable Information gathered and the market fell overall. It felt like a 'conspiracy' was unfolding, and the market was not as simple as we imagined, but we couldn't explain why. Since we are already here, we still approach it with caution. There were no big rises or falls as expected, and the market was like a roller coaster with long wick candles, washing away a group of blindly confident traders. For the coming week, we will prioritize stability. Important events to follow this week include the decision on the Intrerest Rate by the Federal Reserve and the US non-farm payrolls report, which will have a significant impact on the crypto world. Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the Intrerest Rate, investors will follow Powell's speech to see if it changes due to higher-than-expected inflation reports this week. In addition, there are other important economic data releases, such as job openings, consumer confidence surveys, the Bank of Japan's Intrerest Rate decision, ADP employment data, the Bank of England's Intrerest Rate announcement, jobless claims, and manufacturing PMI, etc.
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BTC is currently maintaining consolidation near the 68000 area. At the moment, the support in the middle track area of the small cycle effectively prevented the downward trend of the coin price. The resistance at 68500 is still some distance away. Currently, the 67500 level is a key point for short-term long and short positions. Due to the strong alternation of long and short emotions, it eventually formed a repeated pulling and oscillating rhythm. In the current range operation rhythm, there is a lack of momentum to break the range. In terms of the four-hour structural form, although the price has continuously probed lower, the support in the middle track is still solid and reliable. It will not form an effective breakthrough due to a small pullback. Even if the market probes lower again, it is just a rhythm of probing for support. In the short term, it can be bearish below 68500, and long positions can wait for the price to stabilize above 68000 before taking action.
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The weekly chart of Ethereum shows a large triangle structure, with obvious support at the bottom waiting for the overall direction to be chosen. The current trend of ETH is not satisfactory, as it has not reached a new high and will continue to face selling pressure and price compression after the ETF is approved. The overall rebound on the daily candlestick is weak, and it continues to be pushed down after touching the BOLL midline, which will retest the large support level in the 2800-3000 area. In the short term, there will be a rise and fall, and the news will be whipsawed. After falling to the support level of 3210, there will be a rebound. Recent focuses are the 3345-3375 range, the 3290-3260 range, and the 3090-3060 range. The recent small support level is 3210.
The probability of the Fed maintaining the Interest Rate unchanged in September is 0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 85.8%, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 13.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 75 basis point rate cut is 0.4%.