#比特币反弹 Key points recovered entirely, the road to reversal still faces tests

Today's rebound successfully recaptured the $68,000 psychological level, but does this mean the beginning of a reversal? Further observation of the breakthrough of key resistance is still needed.
Technical analysis: Successfully recapturing $68,000, the next resistance is at $70,000. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin broke through the past week's consolidation range with a strong volume long bullish candle, indicating a significant technical recovery.
● Key level successfully recaptured: $68,000 is an important resistance since mid-February. Today's volume breakout is symbolic. From the daily chart, Bitcoin has now risen above the 20-day moving average for the first time since February 6, indicating a short-term trend reversal. ● Next resistance at $70,000: In the short term, the rebound will face the first psychological test — the $70,000 round number. This level is not only a psychological barrier but also the high point area from February 16, where many trapped positions are clustered. If Bitcoin can return to $70,000, it will help shift market narrative towards a more positive direction.
● Support below has moved up to $66,500: With the rebound established, short-term support has moved from $65,000 to around $66,500. If the price retraces to this level without breaking below, the rebound structure is likely to hold; if it falls below again, beware of a double bottom risk.
● Technical indicators turn stronger across the board: RSI has recovered from oversold territory below 30 to around 55, with momentum significantly restored; MACD fast and slow lines form a golden cross at low levels, and the bullish momentum histogram begins to expand. Volume has increased markedly compared to previous days, indicating inflow of additional funds.
● ETH/BTC rate stabilizes and rebounds: Ethereum against Bitcoin has risen from around 0.0285 to 0.0303, breaking the 0.03 round number. This is an important signal — funds are rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum, often indicating a deepening market trend.

Market outlook and strategy: Rebound established but not reversed, cautiously optimistic with rhythm
Today's rebound is a violent correction of previous excessive pessimism, and clear bottom signals have appeared technically. However, given that the overall market structure has not yet fully reversed, a “cautiously optimistic” approach should be maintained. The short-term outlook is that the market will enter a “key resistance test” phase, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting around $70,000 and $2,150.
● Core observation range moved up to $67,500 - $70,500. Focus on the breakthrough of the $70,000 round number. If volume confirms a steady hold above $70,000, short-term space opens up, with potential to challenge $72,000-$73,000; if resistance causes a pullback, attention should be paid to the support at $67,500.
● Core ideas and recommendations:
1. Rebound confirmed but not reversed, position can be moderately increased: The current rise is no longer driven solely by short covering, as multiple signals resonate — positive funding rates, increased volume, strong individual stocks — confirming the validity of the rebound. Positions can be increased from light to neutral (e.g., 20%-30% of total funds), but full positions should be avoided when chasing highs. 2. Key position battles, set good take-profit and stop-loss: For investors already in the market, consider setting partial take-profit near $70,000 to lock in profits; for those not yet in, consider entering lightly at the support level of $67,500, with stop-loss below the support. 3. Focus on right-side confirmation signals, not guessing tops on the left: It must be clearly understood that a single bullish candle does not equal a reversal. We are still in the rebound phase after a bear market structure; a true trend reversal requires more confirmation signals — such as weekly close above $70,000 or a bottoming structure on the daily chart.
Wintermute OTC trading head Jake Ostrovskis reminds that unless Bitcoin reclaims $75,000, “it’s hard to see many taking this rebound seriously.”
4. Monitor capital flows and key data: Whether the rebound can continue depends on volume sustainment and whether Bitcoin ETF fund flows shift from outflows to inflows — a “weather vane” for institutional confidence recovery. Also, pay attention to Nvidia’s earnings report tonight, as an important “thermometer” for AI market sentiment, as its performance and guidance could influence cross-market risk appetite.