#美联储回购协议计划 $BEAT The story of should be understood this way: this wave is not smashing into the abyss, but rather "shaking out" and "changing blood" at high levels.

It looks like a decline, but in reality it’s more like a normal retracement after a peak. The previous surge straight to 4.5 has already exhausted the enthusiasm in the market, and the subsequent consecutive bearish candles are completely within expectations. The price has already broken below the short-term moving average, and the EMA indicator has started to turn downward, indicating that short-term hot money is exiting, and those who took quick profits have already run. But there is a key detail here—trading volume has not completely shrunk, which means it’s not a full-scale stampede out of the market, but a selective shakeout.

RSI has slid from a high level to a medium-weak zone, market sentiment is cooling but not yet in extreme panic; KDJ is sticking at a low level, and the downward momentum is clearly waning. In other words: it can’t be smashed down anymore, but it’s not yet the time for a rebound.

The next likely rhythm is to repeatedly grind between 1.8 and 2.1, thoroughly wearing out the unsteady hands. If the price holds here and does not break the previous low, the next round of rebound will truly have profit potential; even if the overall market drags a bit more, a probe is just opening a new opportunity window, not bad news.