#周末行情分析

Bitcoin Struggling to Break Oscillation Pattern, Altcoins Focus on Capital Hotspots

The market action during recent weekends has become increasingly lively. Bitcoin surged last night, breaking through $73,000 in one go. However, it subsequently pulled back, indicating that without significant positive news, Bitcoin still finds it difficult to break through the $65,000-$73,000 major oscillation range.

👉 Technical Analysis - Macro Environment: Don't Forget We're Still in a Bear Market

First, we must face a reality: Bitcoin is still in the middle of a bear market cycle. Don't expect Bitcoin to suddenly break through multiple resistance levels and surge to $80,000 or higher. Currently, every resistance level exerts clear pressure on price. From the daily chart perspective, there is pressure around the Bollinger Band upper band at 72,500. Even if short-term puncture occurs, there is downward pressure. From the weekly chart, the MA10 moving average at 75,700 is a strong resistance level. Given the current market situation, it is quite difficult for BTC to reach this level. Any point above 72,000 can be used for shorting.

👉 News: US-Iran Conflict Continues to Escalate, Is the US Economy Facing a "Stagflation" Crisis?

Iran launched multiple strikes today against US military forces in the Middle East, while the US bombed Iran's important oil ports. Currently, the impact of the conflict on the crypto space has largely been digested, and BTC has established its own oscillation rhythm. Additionally, the risk of US economic "stagflation" is also affecting the direction of risk assets. Pay attention to whether upcoming US economic data will constitute subsequent negative catalysts. If so, it will also pressure cryptocurrency prices. Of course, if the US-Iran conflict ends, BTC might have momentum for short-term rallies, but breaking through the strong resistance at 75,700 would be quite difficult. In the absence of major news changes currently, the oscillation range is unlikely to break in the short term.

👉 Trading Suggestions: Range-bound Trading - Short at Highs, Long at Lows

Following the principle of "going with the trend," since the market (whales) has already recognized the $65,000-$73,000 oscillation range in the short term, we might as well follow along. Short-term traders can take action: lay long positions below $67,000 with stop loss below $65,000; lay short positions above $72,000, or more aggressively above $70,000 with stop loss above $75,000.

👉 Altcoins: Major Altcoins Continue High Shorts and Low Longs, While Watching Capital Hotspots

Major altcoins have recently been "oscillating to exhaustion" alongside BTC, with Dogecoin being a typical example, oscillating back and forth in the 0.086-0.11 range. High shorts and low longs strategies have probably worn out profits.

Regarding other altcoins, it could be said to be "all demons dancing wildly." Capital is engaging in successive rotations of strong coins, but if Bitcoin experiences a short-term pullback, altcoins also face the risk of cooling speculation. If participating, definitely control your position size well. Consider adding small positions to strong coins like Trump and RIVER on dips, and set stop losses accordingly.