Today's Market Analysis -- Up or Down? The Bulls and Bears are Clashing Here, Right?
This market has been quite fierce recently.. Let me explain why Chart 1: We can analyze this directly from the order book imbalance angle. In the period after 60k, the price action has actually been quite orderly. Both upside and downside reversals have occurred when the order book was severely imbalanced. Moreover, these reversals follow a very regular pattern, basically returning to the middle range within 1-2 days.. (green) The only time it held out relatively long was those 3 days from Feb 13~Feb 15.. (yellow box) I once thought a bigger rebound was coming.. but in the end it went where it came from. And the current wave is similar.. (blue box) Facing 70k, 72k+ selling pressure, it's been consolidating at the relatively high 69k+ level for 4 days now.. with no signs of breaking down. Can this serve as supporting reasoning for why recent research reports from various institutions are quite bullish?
Combined with ETF flows, although there haven't been large-scale net inflows these past few days, they've maintained a steady ~100-200 million daily state. It seems the ETF hasn't been affected by the Iran situation. (Recently on the Iran side, it's just Trump softening stance, Iran doesn't seem to want to end things, the geopolitical crisis hasn't actually been resolved. They even bombed an oil tanker today..)
My 65.8k long position basically closed at 69k, these past few days I've basically been scalping ~1000 points daily referencing order pressure levels and entry models.. Currently at 69k there isn't much resonance to make me add long positions here.
So this current wave really confuses me.. Is it a bullish trend? Then I don't have a good entry point yet... Can only continue watching to see how this develops next..
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Chart 2: Looking at the order book situation.. these past few days have been quite different from before. At 69k, yesterday basically had no spot order book support, but the market V'd up.. Today in Asia hours, ~100 spot orders at 69k, meanwhile futures also have strong demand at 69k, so it held. But futures simultaneously have massive sell orders at 70k... Why would futures choose to do ranges in such a small zone.. I don't understand.. Is it to consolidate here and allow spot distribution, or accumulation? But regardless, this aligns with the previous expectation hypothesis -- as long as price doesn't drop back to the previous large consolidation zone in late 60k, it can consolidate above the VAH from the previous zone and prepare for future price discovery... Anyway, can't figure out what the real capital intention is. Can rationalize it from both bull and bear angles... Should I say "something big is coming"? Just hard to guess the direction haha
The reason I can't tell is because of Chart 3 From the spot CVD angle, can't tell if it's accumulation or distribution either... Can only call it high-level divergence?
Finally, Chart 4 Just as previously noted, the range is now boxed within this 65.8k upside zone.. But the bullish point is, we're currently still above the recent high-low point AVWAP of 74k and 65.8k..
Potential focus points today: one is the 69k~68k liquidity zone, the other is 71.5~72.5k range which is also a liquidity zone overlapping with 72.5k POC which hasn't broken through yet...
In any case, at this position, I believe everyone's psychological bull/bear bias will show huge divergence..
Supporting bullish reasons: ETF capital continuously flowing in, upper order book pressure zone keeps failing to retreat, price is unusually resilient, even the Iran situation hasn't substantially improved yet hasn't smashed price down.
Supporting bearish reasons: Upper end of the past 1 month consolidation range, continuous order book pressure, upper spot/futures orders can't break through either, capital lacks momentum.
Today's Market Analysis -- Up or Down? The Bulls and Bears are Clashing Here, Right?
This market has been quite fierce recently.. Let me explain why
Chart 1: We can analyze this directly from the order book imbalance angle. In the period after 60k, the price action has actually been quite orderly. Both upside and downside reversals have occurred when the order book was severely imbalanced. Moreover, these reversals follow a very regular pattern, basically returning to the middle range within 1-2 days.. (green)
The only time it held out relatively long was those 3 days from Feb 13~Feb 15.. (yellow box) I once thought a bigger rebound was coming.. but in the end it went where it came from.
And the current wave is similar.. (blue box)
Facing 70k, 72k+ selling pressure, it's been consolidating at the relatively high 69k+ level for 4 days now.. with no signs of breaking down.
Can this serve as supporting reasoning for why recent research reports from various institutions are quite bullish?
Combined with ETF flows, although there haven't been large-scale net inflows these past few days, they've maintained a steady ~100-200 million daily state. It seems the ETF hasn't been affected by the Iran situation.
(Recently on the Iran side, it's just Trump softening stance, Iran doesn't seem to want to end things, the geopolitical crisis hasn't actually been resolved. They even bombed an oil tanker today..)
My 65.8k long position basically closed at 69k, these past few days I've basically been scalping ~1000 points daily referencing order pressure levels and entry models.. Currently at 69k there isn't much resonance to make me add long positions here.
So this current wave really confuses me.. Is it a bullish trend? Then I don't have a good entry point yet... Can only continue watching to see how this develops next..
-----------
Chart 2: Looking at the order book situation.. these past few days have been quite different from before.
At 69k, yesterday basically had no spot order book support, but the market V'd up.. Today in Asia hours, ~100 spot orders at 69k, meanwhile futures also have strong demand at 69k, so it held.
But futures simultaneously have massive sell orders at 70k...
Why would futures choose to do ranges in such a small zone.. I don't understand.. Is it to consolidate here and allow spot distribution, or accumulation?
But regardless, this aligns with the previous expectation hypothesis -- as long as price doesn't drop back to the previous large consolidation zone in late 60k, it can consolidate above the VAH from the previous zone and prepare for future price discovery...
Anyway, can't figure out what the real capital intention is. Can rationalize it from both bull and bear angles...
Should I say "something big is coming"? Just hard to guess the direction haha
The reason I can't tell is because of Chart 3
From the spot CVD angle, can't tell if it's accumulation or distribution either...
Can only call it high-level divergence?
Finally, Chart 4
Just as previously noted, the range is now boxed within this 65.8k upside zone.. But the bullish point is, we're currently still above the recent high-low point AVWAP of 74k and 65.8k..
Potential focus points today: one is the 69k~68k liquidity zone, the other is 71.5~72.5k range which is also a liquidity zone overlapping with 72.5k POC which hasn't broken through yet...
In any case, at this position, I believe everyone's psychological bull/bear bias will show huge divergence..
Supporting bullish reasons: ETF capital continuously flowing in, upper order book pressure zone keeps failing to retreat, price is unusually resilient, even the Iran situation hasn't substantially improved yet hasn't smashed price down.
Supporting bearish reasons: Upper end of the past 1 month consolidation range, continuous order book pressure, upper spot/futures orders can't break through either, capital lacks momentum.
Which side do you support? What's your reasoning?