Zhaoshang Macro: The Federal Reserve's forward judgment on the risk of stagflation is the reason why it has been reluctant to cut interest rates.

Golden ten data on June 19, China Merchants Macro Research Report said that overall, the meeting incremental information is less, the vast majority of the meeting statement and speech wording continues the content of May, answering reporters’ questions Powell repeatedly hinted that the Federal Reserve will make decisions after inflation fully reflects tariffs, combined with SEP to lower growth expectations, inflation and unemployment expectations, the Fed’s forward-looking judgment on the risk of stagflation is the reason for the delay in cutting interest rates. As the dot plot still gives the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year, but the Fed is more divided. If the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate and push up oil prices to drive up non-core inflation, the tariff policy will further ease and ease the pressure on core inflation.