Nearly 90% of Central Banks have cut interest rates globally. Macroeconomic data confirms that the encryption bull run is still in its early stages.

Global Macro Investor's macro research director Julien Bittel stated that based on comprehensive economic indicators, the current bull run of Crypto Assets is still in its early stages.

In an analysis shared on X platform on September 8, Bittel refuted the prevalent "cycle peak" sentiment in the Crypto Assets market and challenged the notion of "late cycle" by analyzing traditional economic indicators.

The typical characteristics of an economy in the later stages of a cycle usually include: extremely high manufacturing sentiment (ISM index around 60), elevated service sector sentiment, strong confidence among home builders, ample confidence among consumers and workers, bullish investor sentiment, and accelerated wage growth.

However, Bittel pointed out that the current data presents a distinctly different picture. After incorporating the indicators from ISM (Institute for Supply Management), NAHB (National Association of Home Builders), NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business), BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), AAII (American Association of Individual Investors), and The Conference Board into a comprehensive sentiment measurement system, he found that the economic sentiment in the United States remains "very moderate" and has not yet reached the extreme optimism levels typical of the later stages of a cycle.

He stated: "The current economy does not exhibit characteristics of a late-cycle phase above trend levels; it resembles more of an early-cycle economy that is attempting to build momentum."

Central bank policies provide additional support for this view. Nearly 90% of central banks worldwide are implementing interest rate cuts, and Bittel stated that this creates an "unconventional" environment, providing a strong impetus for the "business cycle" in the long run.

The trend in oil prices further confirms the judgment of the "early cycle": current oil prices are nearly 20% lower than the trend level and are still continuing to decline. This indicates that the current financial environment is in a loose state, rather than the tightening state that usually occurs in the later stages of the cycle.

Historical data shows that when oil prices are 50% higher than the trend level since the early 1970s, it often signals the onset of an economic recession.

The Temporary Help Services industry data shows "early cycle characteristics": the industry growth is gradually recovering from extremely low levels, indicating that the economy is in a recovery phase rather than a downturn phase.

Bittel pointed out that the latter part of the cycle often shows "year-on-year growth turning from positive to slowing down," reflecting that the overheating economy is losing momentum.

He attributed the rise in unemployment to the lagging employment data, referring to it as "the situation from the past six months in the rearview mirror."

Before companies decide to hire "high-cost full-time employees with benefits and pensions", they usually first increase employee overtime hours and hire temporary staff.

Bittel also defines the current economic environment as a "transition from the early phase of the cycle to the mid-phase of the cycle" and describes this process as moving from "macroeconomic spring" (rising growth, declining inflation) to "macroeconomic summer" (rising growth, rising inflation).

He concluded that this macro perspective poses a challenge to the prevailing sentiment in the current crypto assets market, which believes that the bull run cycle has peaked. In contrast, the current economic environment supports continued market expansion rather than contraction.