QCP: Prior to the upgrade of ETH 以太Pectra, the options market showed distortion, and market positioning triggered Fluctuation expectations

BlockBeats news, on February 18th, QCP released daily analysis, stating that in the Options market, there was a significant distortion in the term structure near the expiration date in March, especially on ETH, which may reflect the market's positioning on the upcoming Pectra upgrade on Ethereum—it is currently in testing and expected to be officially launched in early April. Looking back at past upgrade events, The Merge (September 2022) followed the classic 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' pattern—ETH rebounded over 100% from the June low but sold off after the event. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade (April 2023), allowing stake extraction, was viewed pessimistically by the market due to concerns about oversupply. However, once the selling pressure failed to materialize, ETH pumped 30% in the following months. Traders may be preparing for another Fluctuation event, as the related narrative is increasingly followed. Starting from March 28th, the Fluctuation rate tends towards call Options—setting the stage for the next positioning theme, as the crypto market remains in a wait-and-see mode after the impact of Trump's tariffs. An opposing force is the widespread weakness of Altcoins—LIBRA's collapse, SOL and ETH falling back to pre-election levels, and BTC's market dominance nearing an All-time high. In addition to market catalysts, achieving sustained recovery of Altcoins may require real-world applications and progress in network development, not just speculative fund flows.