Before I was in the high-speed exhibition period, I first ate big meat, ordinary people can drink meat, the distribution is unreasonable, 28 or even 19, but 2 or 1 of them is faster than the 19th. Moreover, the former 几年房价在账面 has also always been Shang涨的,高买房早的6070後们共享到经济发展的红利,对分配的正。 但在经济新常态之后,高位接盘楼市的90、00后们成为了社会舆论的mainstream,叠加上这两年普通人的工资增速骤降,也造成現在分配类的评论往往能引起大多數人共鸣。 但如果我们就分配进行细化的讨论,比如目前的分配模式里到底谁拿了大头,是政府还是企業业? 初次分配和secondary 分配的结构在近几年有什么变化吗? 哪些地方还有可以向居民倾斜的空间? 这些。 真正能問我国分配到底是how 么回事的问题,那其实大部分人并unclear,那本期视频up就带大家深入了解一下我国目前的分配现状,在了解了分配的基础上,在谈一谈国内目前经济不景气的核心原因。 After the end of this year, the excitement of last September has gradually returned to the dull, and the residents have returned to the spiral of Tongyun. 我们把1月和2月的居民物价数据合计来纵向的对比会发现,今年的1月1的2月居民物价数据环比结好于防控放开后的2023年,大幅的弱于去年。 虽然宏观层面的最初GDP和社会消费品零售总额食表现的都还不错,但这背后其实是建立在从last 9月后政府端开启了大release 水之上。 与宏观经济层面上的增长矛盾的是,根据经典的经济学定率奥af率,GDPPer 增长1%,失业Rate 应该是下降0.5%的,但最初在GDP超预期的增长5.4% 款,我国的城镇失业率?,却同样来到5.4%的高位。 这意味着放水渦来的经济增长依旧没有汇集 to residents。 拉动我国经济的三驾马车投资、消费、出口里,在这几年真正支撑我国经济增长的其实一直是出口。 In 2024. 我国出口总额为25.45万亿,同比增长了7.1%,贸易顺差为7.06万亿,同比扩大了13.6%,均创下剔除2022年特殊时期以来的新高。 从overseas 赚取的天量钞票?,帮助我国经济还算平稳的度过了这几年房地产挤foam造成的信贷销售危机,以及those 卖房卖资产换汇跑路的外国人和中国人带来的货币销售危机。 However, since Trump came to power, the policy of making and manufacturing in the United States has accelerated rapidly, and the businessman has directly pulled the situation under the understanding of the king. 虽然我们目前对美直接出口的额度占总出口不到15%,但计算上从东南亚和墨西哥转出口到美国商品的话,我们对美的出口实际还是在20%以上。 understand 王为了遏制我们的转exit路径,也给Vietnam、India和Mexico这些我们主要的转出口中间国加了很高的关税,虽然后面迫迫于压力统一减到10%,但这波关税明摆着要围堵我国20%以上的exit贸易额。 不论这次的关税战最终会如何land,我们也应该看明了,全球极右E保守势力根本不会顾及经济基本面和国内居民物价的通胀,为了遏制中国,可以用出伤敌1000,自损800的招数,国际关系的理性时代? Maybe it's gone, but what about it? 美国已经选择了以我为主,那未来的欧洲也可能會集体右转,变成美国的翻版,而我们作为卖商品的全球工厂最大。 它的消费国,is 不买你的东西,短时间内单靠发展小客户还不足支撑huge 贸易空白,Since the reverse globalization的脱钩断炼 is unavoidable,极度依赖出口的经济模式也到不得不改变的时候。 The remaining left leg real estate is waiting for the Qiqi section, and the right leg infrastructure is also facing the dilemma. Yu Yihu, Gao Yiqian turned his gaze to the elimination that had been hiding in the corner with a stick and not being revisited. In March this year, the government work notice for the first time put the promotion and elimination of the government work as the top task of this year's government work, and it was the first time in the history of the elimination of the elimination of science and technology, education and reform to surpass the top of the list. The number of household durable consumer products such as Qiqi and Jia Zheng has also doubled from 1,500 last year to 3,000 this year. 但尽管国家层面,已经拿出了远超年,直shout集镇内需提升消费口号,今年给到居民部门真金白银大额补贴的诚意,但从数据上来看,我国目前的资产价格还是上不来,消费层面的增长嘛,完全依靠刺激instead of 内。 贷的消费动能底层人民在未来收入较悲观的预期下,依旧在Go to leverage,具体的表现是减少新borrow,扳除必要的消费,提前忿还银行之前的贷款。 Everyone knows that the company is 5 Mao Yinyin in the world, and most of the new ones rely on credit, and most of them rely on credit, and they can rely on the stock market to borrow from the stock market. That目前, 我国In addition to the government in the frame of the box of the borrowing of the fund, enterprises, and residents are not borrowed, that does not borrow, 还在提前还款,优化自己的资产负债表,以提高应对风险的能力。 That 不管政府还是企业借来的钱,最终的流向还是居民个人,但消费的终端居民目前面临两个主要限制消费的原因,一个是居民的资产,Na要知道要知道我国居民80%的资产是房子,而这两年房价的持续下跌让everyone的账面资产在持续的缩水。 Pre-Bitter Year. Gao Yi has already cleared the road of first profit and then broken, and the broken is the low degree of the pillar of the real estate, then the meaning is very clear, as long as the real estate does not explode, does not lead out of the danger of the system, then it is up to him. I can also see that in the former 两年房价快速跌的时期期, the policy of loosening restrictions is like the introduction of a high one, is it not possible to pull the favorable policy in a mouthful? It's not that you can't, it's that you don't want to But because of the three quarters of last year, 实在 is a sluggish, so after September last year, 我们 raised the positioning of the real estate 产 upwards to a 个档, can not completely go by it, to be the lord of the 丳为, don't make a big fall again, otherwise the resistance to boost the elimination is too great. 但我国的房地产目前不论是经济的周期,还是population 周期,也是城市发展的周期,都很明显,到了下行的周期里,前几年房价的几次大涨,已经让大量追涨杀跌的居民?加了30年 leverage进场,而这些债务lever樂?其实是以明胀不现,工资不增长,then tomorrow can 消费的钱只䇏少,而债务barrod的消除?只能时间去消化。 而且我国的房贷很多都是30年的,那时间作用一时半会忿也发挥不出来。 所以我国经济如何破局,消费如何支狹起来,分析来分析going,其实只有一个破局的方向,that is 拉动居民工资增长,进而带动经济离开通缩spir,重新返回通胀。 这种工资增长带来的通胀是良性的,As long as 物价会持续的上涨,钱会变毛的预期?会重回居民的内心。 目前压制经济factor,,,中压制消费、企業业投资暂停、选择持有现金或换汇跑路 and so on. But as far as the current situation is concerned, the old model of relying on making a bigger cake to pull the income of residents is very large, and the resistance is also very large, and the popularity of the residents is also very large. The only effective thing that can be done at the moment is to cut the cake. 分配比例一般文章嘛,讲到这里就结束了,但我们要更深入的go 探讨我国分配的发展历史,以及造成这样现状的原因,哪里可以有改革的空间? Then in the past, first introduce today's little guy companion Miaojie 邹阵润眼仪, 这款润眼仪 and 龾化点阵, 热文, massage four-in-one, can bend me and let loose dry eyes, flat and dense words, look at it for a long time to dry my eyes, I will use it to moisturize well, its moth turns into a large amount of moth, water vapor, with the whole side of the compress, a blood circulation, a spin to accelerate the secretion of eyes and oil, a bow, my eyes will return to the saliva again. If you want to get up early to get rid of the blood, you can also forget that your cold water ice compress is very effective. What about my little partner, who may have dark circles under my eyes all year round, but what about the degree of my eyes? Kneading, kneading and gone, let's not say that we are adults, and our strength is also declining, if it evolves into dry eye syndrome and glaucoma, it will be too sinful. You can press the 14 Qiang massage head, rub all the acupuncture points around the eyes, and the Tai Yan acupoint, the sac of the Tai Yan is deeply relaxed, just like you have done a set of eye exercises, rest and relax. On the neck, the fangs are paired with a small song, and after pressing the eyes, the eyes are bright, and the pouch is also sober. Five-mile mode of foot, work, stay, business trips, travel, jingyin, many people hang for a long time, a small one in the body is also convenient, compared to hoarding steam eye masks, but it is much more cost-effective, there is a need to give advice, one year to protect the protection of the servant, 还送运费险, take advantage of the mother 亲节送长辈用也合适. 好,我们return to 重点,其实在reform开放之初 for more than ten years,resident income also 经有过高光时刻,1978,resident income 的占比为51.6%, 到1991年最高点的时候,已经达到67.5%,而同时间段里里,企业和政府的收入份额都出现了下滑,原因也很简单,改开之前嘛,我国一直是优先发展重工业的,计划经济下,农产品的价格和工人的工资长期被压制, 但自从1978年改革开放,让我国明确了以按劳分配为主体的收入分配模式,大量的私营企业如雨后春笋般的出现,相应的企业对劳动力市场的竞争也就出现了,随之而来的就是器业支付的劳动报remuneration增加成。 城镇职工的工资,迅速提高,而且这个时间段里,我国放开了对农产品价格的控制,逐步提高了农产品价格,也让农 Village residents' income was rapidly improved,总之这 for more than ten years, 我国resident income 份额快速度量,Residents 部门的获得感和幸福感应该是建国以来最强的时期。 Unfortunately, the good scenery is not 长,2000前後,我国经济发生了两个比较重大的转折,一个是企業业端的rise。 我国在2001年加入WTO,进入全球贸易链,正式确立了出口导向型的经济,出口企业利用国内廉价劳动力为发达国家输出中低端制造业产品,政券外汇,当时業務非趁好做,出口产业迅速扩张,其投资回报率非常高,超高的投资回报嘛,也让企业更注重资本的积累和扩大生产规模,从而在分配中倾向于将更多的收益用于再投资和资本的积累,而非提高劳动者的报酬, 自此,企业的资本积累速度开始快于居民报酬的增长速度。 And, after the end of the day. 逐渐的加剧,劳动密集型的茶制造业为了保持竞争力,只能通过reduce costs来维持利润,,我国人,从来没有lack 过,coupled with around 2000, a large number of 农 migrant workers have started to work in the city, for more than ten years, the amount of 农 migrant workers has increased at an average rate of 5.8% per year. 所以对于企业来说,最容易控制的成本是人力成本,自此国内制造业劳动报酬占比的持续下降出现了。 And the second 个转fold it, 则是来自于政。 改革开放之前,我国的住房基本都是通过分配的方式go 满足城镇社區需求,这导致了房地产对于国企和政府来说是个纯支出的事情,只消费资源,不产生经济結果,这种赔钱买卖的让发展房地产对于政府来说是没什么动力的。 In the 80s, the per capita housing surface of the city's residents was even lower than the level at the beginning of liberation, and by 1997, the financial crisis of Bozhou exploded, and it was necessary to export to the inside to need support. In July 1998, the housing reform policy was promulgated, and the welfare housing system was extended for 50 years. In 1996, the housing system was introduced, 30 years of mortgage levers, housing distribution in 2001, the listing of housing enterprises in 2001, the sale of off-plan housing, the establishment of the land bidding and auction system, and the establishment of the land bidding and auction system. 这一波大招连拍能用4年的时间,直接让我们国家 of the commodity housing 市场实现了出生及adult 年的转变,房地产对经济的增长贡献维持在15%大約,年均对GDP拉动1.2个百分点,Government revenue in GDP中的占比明显提高。 但这种飞速增长的地rent经济和府储存率的back后? 其实是府从Residents Department 门获取income,Residents 为了屋took out their own deposit,并且通过房贷预知了未来收入,最终实现了信贷货币的大量诞生,以及国民经济的飞跃式增长。 But what about the government? Unlike Qi业, Qi业赚 Money. After the business is good, it will be greatly regenerated, and if the business is not good, it will be hidden, and the second distribution, that is, redistribution, will rarely be carried out. 但府通过地和税harvest赚的钱,除了维持日常运营之外,更多的其实进行了再分配。 但长期以来,我国财政支出更偏重于基础设施等公共投资,进而反惠地rent、经济配套的增加和新城的不断扩建,让土地价格呀不断的提升,但相应的,originally 应该补给居民端的公共服务和民生支出却一直相对不足。 Specifically, the proportion of government investment in social security, education, and other aspects of GDP has always been low, and the government has not fully used it to improve residents' welfare and the expenditure of residents to improve residents' welfare, and there is also a clear bias in the redistribution of residents, and the government's 再分配对工业企業业倾sli严重, in the past ten years, 我国消费税和增值税总额约100万亿元,and exports of enterprises 业的出税,就约有24万亿元. 而且从土地费用来看,工业用地的价格。 It has always been lower than residential land and commercial land. By 2024, the hanging signs of industrial land will be 267 yuan per square meter, while that of residential land will be 3,168 yuan per square meter. 同样的土地,因为使用性质的不同,让地方政府government 实现了从老的住房消费中征税来补贴工业生产。 而且不同的企业之间赚钱能力?,也出现了明显的differentiation,以real 地产、金融和互联网为代表的一类企業业嘛,在202年之前获得大量利润,但这些企業业所需的员工并not much,虽然There are many high salaries的岗位,但形成规模,最终的结果,是吸纳了绝大多数劳动者的农业、制造业、服务业的薪酬涨幅彦被压制,时间来到现在,地租经济,已经成为了明日黄花, What about the benefits of reinvesting in infrastructure? 只能是越来越小,政府再分配已经到需要改变的时刻,想要让消费代替房地产成为支持经济的支柱,then 必须提升取之于民、用之于民的再分配比例。 But the United States and Japan are both divided and divided. The main way to allocate the proportion of residents' initial income to disposable income is to increase by more than 10%, that is, the government's income is invested in social security, fighting and education, etc., and the small number of residents can be old, see a doctor, and go to school. 其次,企业部门也要有所转变,当经济增长的果实更多的stay在企业账上,而非进入居民端包时,即使GDP高速增长,消费的增长也会非常的缓慢,让企业主动给劳动者多分企业的难度很大。 胖东来这类企业嘛,还是异类中的异类,只有政府端才能强制企业提高再分配的额度。 我觉得首先的,,,其实 is the government's 全种转移付,,,对Financial 类公司严查和信pay也也近几年如进行中. 对. 对互联网公司有过想法,但最后嘛,碍于激;panic,暂时放弃,对各类上市企業业增加分红要求,也在相继出台。 这两年股市中的现金分红已经明显增加了,而大小都的取消,节holidays的增加也正在逐步实现。 可以看到政府已经在近两年开始有意的going 调整再分配的倾向,除了从自己的钱包里拿出补贴给居民之外,也在改变偏向企业的历史态度,只是整体的力度还不大,叠加上了经济的下行,让居民部门体感并不明显。 But I must know that the imbalance in the distribution of income cannot be achieved overnight. 中国多年来形成的经济失balance和分配不公,需要的是完全重构经济和财政的体系,那这个改革的难度不可谓不大,需要给我国的政府一点时间和一点patience,理想未来能看到更多更给力策略出现!