Today's observation.. How did it suddenly reach a new high...

Today I took a stroll, and it seems that there isn't a convincing reason for what drove yesterday's surge to a new high...
Yesterday, the ETF only had an inflow of 200 million, which doesn't really count as being pushed by the ETF..

The only forced explanation is the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes (which indeed started shortly after they were released).
However, I looked at the minutes and also sent a quick read.. In fact, I couldn't find anything particularly uplifting for the market.. The main content is all information that the market already knows.. Even if there are "some participants" willing to support a rate cut in July, which is a dovish view.. It also mentions that there are hawkish members who are unwilling to cut rates.. Basically consistent with the released dot plot..
So what exactly can explain the new high... I don't understand... Could it be interpreted as the current liquidity is too low, so just a bit of news can take advantage and drive the price up?!

Looking back at yesterday.. I took a short position below 11W.. When it reached 11W for the second time (the time it broke through), I went short again.. After the breakout, I was still wondering if it would move into a liquidity-injecting market.. I added two positions below 110800 and 111800 (the two spots below the integer pressure levels in the spot market).. The cost increased to 111000, and later when it broke the new high and was pushed back to 111000, I closed the added positions.

In fact, this order did not stabilize and run away as planned yesterday after breaking 110,000. Looking back now, it was still due to a few points: 1. There was no significant favorable news to drive the market (even now, I still think yesterday's meeting minutes were not a major favorable consensus). 2. The market did not have a suitable pullback opportunity but shot up directly. Therefore, I had to choose to add positions at the upcoming resistance levels to break even. Basically, I've prepared for a significant loss at 113,500 if I judged incorrectly.

Therefore, in the judgment between "strong breakout" and "reverse after large liquidity purge"... the next step is to continue researching... Currently, there are several ideas, one is to use indicators like contract OI and spot premium to assist in judgment... Let's see if the indicators of these trading behaviors can have different forms under two scenarios... The second is that we can only enter on the right side of the ICT pattern (waiting for the FVG to retrace to enter based on that logic) The third is to either continue working with the resistance level, with a stop loss on breakout, or if it is a liquidity-purging market, then after the liquidity is purged, wait for the FVG retracement before entering...

Currently, from the order flow perspective... there are still over 100 sell orders hanging at the spot price of 112,000 new highs... I think it will not be easy to break through the psychological barrier of the previous high and enter a new range without significant positive news.
So the corresponding contract sell order is at 112500, and the buy order below is at 108500...

Looking at the liquidity for liquidation, all the short positions accumulated above 110,000 over the past month have been completely liquidated. The "last massive liquidity, waiting for liquidation to pick sides" mentioned a couple of days ago has already materialized. So either we stay around above 110,000 for a few more days to allow the shorts to continue accumulating liquidity, and then make a sudden move, or if it falls below 109,000, we will head towards the liquidity at 106,000.

Finally, the current thinking here is... The positions left over from yesterday are still near the cost price, and I still plan to hold on for a bit longer... The reasons are still the same as mentioned before: 1. There is no absolute favorable news right now. 2. The selling pressure at new highs continues to exist. 3. There hasn't been a large influx of ETF funds. 4. Yesterday's new high was just a slight break that was immediately pushed back, and the buying power is insufficient to break through strongly.
So now this position.. feels like the probability of going down is a bit higher...
Then let's run with a fluctuation of 1500 points up and down.. 112500 new high + contract resistance level.. If it can break through here again, I will run, no more holding on.
The drop to 108500 is almost a radical support level..
Currently, this does not consider low longs..
Low multi at 106000...
Flying back to the country for vacation today.. Next 10 hours with no signal, so let this order run by itself...