I recently saw an interesting piece of news and wanted to share it with everyone.

Previously, there were constant rumors that the U.S. government held a large amount of Bitcoin, and the market estimated there to be about $25 billion in crypto assets. So what happened? A reporter obtained the latest documents through the Freedom of Information Act, revealing that the U.S. Marshals Service actually holds 28,988 Bitcoins. At the current price of BTC 119,297.91, the total value is approximately $3.46 billion. Looking at it this way, the actual holdings are only 13.8% of what was expected, which is quite a significant discrepancy.

Let's talk about the current situation of Bitcoin. The current price is $119,297.91, and it has increased by 1.66% in the last 24 hours. From a technical perspective, it's also looking good, with a clear upward trend. EMA50 ( 119,375 ) > EMA100 19283746565748392011 119,219 ( > EMA200 19283746565748392011 118,826 ). The RSI24 is 59.80, which is in a healthy upward range. The key support is at $117,933, while the resistance is at $120,319.

From a fundamental perspective, the good news is that the government's actual holdings are less than expected, which significantly reduces potential selling pressure. Moreover, the Trump administration has a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" plan, which has also reassured the market. Institutions like MicroStrategy continue to increase their holdings, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook. However, risks do exist, as Democratic lawmakers are not very supportive of the Bitcoin reserve plan, and there are considerable partisan divisions regarding crypto asset policies, which may affect long-term planning.

If you want to go long on BTC, I think you can enter the market in the range of $118,000 to $118,500, which is when it pulls back to around the EMA20. The target price can be seen at $122,000 to $125,000, and the stop loss should be set at $117,500, which is near the lower Bollinger Band. The holding period is short to medium term, about 2-4 weeks.

This consideration is mainly due to the fact that the government’s actual holdings have decreased, the supply-side pressure has lessened, there is also an upward trend in the technical aspect, and with the concept of "strategic reserves", there is support in the long term.

Risk management should also be taken into account. It's better to build positions in batches, and a single position should not exceed 15% of the total capital. Pay more attention to changes in U.S. policies, the flow of institutional funds, and key support and resistance levels from a technical perspective.

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