Global Financial Markets: The Impact of Trump Policies and Crypto Assets Fluctuation

Recently, the global financial market has experienced severe turbulence, which is closely related to the policies of former U.S. President Trump. As global tariff disputes escalate, concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy are growing. On March 10, the U.S. stock market suffered a heavy blow, with all three major indices falling collectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 2.08%, the Nasdaq index fell by 4%, and the S&P 500 index also declined by 2.7%.

The Crypto Assets market was also not spared from difficulties. The price of Bitcoin fell below $77,000, reaching $76,560, with a daily decline of over 8%. Ethereum performed even weaker, briefly dropping below $1,800 and hitting around $1,760, bringing the price level back to four years ago.

However, the market seems to have started showing signs of recovery. The price of Bitcoin has returned to around $82,000, and Ethereum has also risen back above $1,900. Nevertheless, in the current complex external environment, whether this wave of increase is a temporary rebound or a true reversal signal remains a matter of great uncertainty in the market.

Looking back at Trump's presidency, his policies had a profound impact on the financial markets. In the lead-up to and following the election, global financial markets actively responded to expectations of Trump's policies, with investors betting on his deregulation, tax cuts, and immigration policies. The US stock market, the dollar, and Bitcoin all soared, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose sharply. However, it turned out that Trump brought not only increases but also concerns about economic recession to the financial markets.

Currently, the economic indicators in the United States present a complex situation. The non-farm payroll data for February was slightly below expectations, but the unemployment rate remains at a relatively stable level. However, inflation issues are still severe, with the year-on-year inflation rate for February reaching a recent high. Consumer concerns about the future economic outlook have also increased.

Against this backdrop, multiple institutions have begun to predict that the United States may fall into recession. The Atlanta Fed predicts that GDP may contract by 2.4% in the first quarter of this year, while JPMorgan's model shows that the probability of a recession in the U.S. has risen from 17% in November of last year to 31%.

Trump's recent tariff policy has become the focus of market attention. He has announced the imposition of tariffs on multiple countries, triggering international trade disputes. These policies not only affect the relationship between the United States and its trade partners but also bring uncertainty to the global economy.

In the face of a complex economic situation, the Trump administration implemented a series of measures, including cutting government spending, adjusting tariff policies, and reassessing international cooperation relations. Although these measures may bring long-term benefits, they inevitably triggered market fluctuations and economic pains in the short term.

For the Crypto Assets market, changes in the macroeconomic environment directly affect its trend. The prices of major Crypto Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are closely linked to U.S. economic indicators and policy directions. Currently, the crypto market is at the intersection of bulls and bears; on one hand, there are high price levels and expectations of potential regulatory easing, while on the other hand, it faces challenges of insufficient growth momentum and weakening liquidity.

Looking ahead, market expectations for the Federal Reserve potentially starting to cut interest rates in June have increased. If the U.S. successfully implements interest rate cuts and restarts quantitative easing policies, along with a relatively healthy balance sheet situation, it could reshape the economic cycle. However, the risk of recession cannot be ignored.

In the short term, tariff disputes and economic uncertainty may continue to affect market sentiment. Before there is a significant improvement in the macro environment, the encryption market is unlikely to see a substantial reversal. Currently, Bitcoin's support level may be around $70,000, but if a recession becomes a reality, prices could experience a larger decline.

In the long term, many industry experts remain optimistic about the crypto market. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin may reach a million dollars in the future, although it may have to go through a difficult period before that. Data shows that large investors (commonly known as "whales") have recently accumulated over 65,000 coins, demonstrating long-term confidence.

For investors, in the current market environment dominated by external economic conditions, it is crucial to closely monitor tariff policies, inflation data, and geopolitical developments. During times of high uncertainty, maintaining patience and caution may be a wise choice.