CryptoQuant CEO's Heavy Declaration: The Traditional Bitcoin Cycle Theory Has Failed, the Era of Institutional Dominance Has Arrived

An authoritative figure in the field of Crypto Assets analysis, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, recently publicly declared that traditional Bitcoin cycle theory is no longer applicable. This bold statement also indicates his acknowledgment that his past predictive models have failed, reflecting a fundamental shift in the current market structure compared to history. The collapse of the Bitcoin cycle theory is closely related to the influx of institutional capital, which has completely changed the market competition landscape.

Why has traditional cycle theory collapsed? Ki Young Ju's previous Bitcoin cycle theory is based on two main pillars: buying when whales accumulate and selling when retail investors enter.

He once used these two factors as the basis for his predictions—including asserting in March this year that the bull market cycle has ended.

However, as market dynamics evolve, he acknowledges that the theory is no longer applicable. He even apologized for this, worrying that his predictions may have affected others' investment decisions.

The key difference that prompted him to abandon the theory lies in the shift of the whale behavior pattern. In the past, whales distributed Bitcoin to retail investors. But now, he has found that established whales are selling Bitcoin to the newly emerging long-term holding whales.

This shift has led to a continuous increase in the number of Bitcoin holders—surpassing the number of traders.

The institutional adoption rate of Bitcoin has not only exceeded his expectations but also surpassed many analysts' predictions. This has created a market environment for Bitcoin that has never been seen before, making historical comparisons exceptionally difficult.

On-chain data evidence: This cycle is not that cycle Recent analysis from CryptoQuant supports his argument. Analyst Burakkesmeci pointed out that on-chain data clearly indicates that we are not in a typical "retail frenzy period" currently, which is drastically different from past cycles.

The chart shows that retail investors have been selling BTC since the beginning of 2023, with their holdings continuously declining. In contrast, institutions, funds, and large wallets (including ETFs) have been actively accumulating Bitcoin.

"This cycle is nothing like the frenzy of 2021. There is no mass hysteria, and social media is not exhibiting explosive discussions. Quiet and smart money is currently taking center stage — while most people are still watching from the sidelines," Burakkesmeci stated.

The Predictive Dilemma in the New Market Environment However, this new market environment has also made predictions exceptionally difficult.

In previous cycles, investors identified bear markets through the panic of retail investors. But now an urgent question arises: what would a bear market look like if the panic is coming from institutional investors?

This may be the biggest challenge currently facing encryption market risk management.

Conclusion: New Investment Thinking Under Paradigm Shift Ki Young Ju's candid declaration marks an important turning point in the analysis of the Crypto Assets market. The traditional cycle model based on the game between retail investors and whales has already failed under the impact of the institutionalization of Bitcoin wave. On-chain data reveals the continuous accumulation by institutions and the exit of retail investors, painting an unprecedented market landscape. This structural change in the Crypto Assets market not only disrupts the analytical framework but also poses a new proposition for risk management and investment strategies—when whales themselves also differentiate and iterate, and when "smart money" dominates the stage, understanding and adapting to this institution-led new cycle of crypto will be a challenge that all market participants must face. The difficulty of prediction has increased sharply, but embracing change and focusing on on-chain fundamental data remain key to grasping future trends.