BTC price rebounds to a key position, multiple factors drive market stabilization

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) showed an upward trend, opening at $82,562.50 and finally closing at $86,092.94, with a weekly increase of 4.28% and a fluctuation of 7.71%. This marks BTC's continuous rise for two weeks, although trading volume has been declining for three weeks. Currently, the BTC price is operating in a downward channel, approaching the upper edge of the channel, facing an important directional choice.

The Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy stance has leaned towards dovish, stating in the interest rate meeting that it will closely monitor the economic situation and take intervention measures if necessary. At the same time, the Fed hinted that there may be two interest rate cuts this year, a signal that has injected some confidence into the market.

As the US stock market stabilizes and rebounds, the inflow of funds into cryptocurrency ETFs has significantly increased, becoming an important factor driving the stabilization and rebound of BTC prices. Market participants are closely watching the upcoming US PCE data, which could have a significant impact on the future direction of BTC.

In terms of macroeconomics, the Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, maintaining the key borrowing rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed Chair emphasized that the economic growth expectations have been downgraded, and inflationary pressures still exist. To alleviate market concerns, the Federal Reserve announced a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction starting from April 1, significantly lowering the cap on the reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings.

These measures are interpreted by the market as a signal of the Federal Reserve's support for the stock and bond markets. Despite the economy facing the risk of stagflation, the financial markets have begun to show signs of stabilization. The dollar index rose slightly by 0.25%, while major stock indices such as the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all recorded gains for the week. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, with the 2-year and 10-year yields decreasing by 1.59% and 1.39%, respectively.

Risk aversion continues, the London gold market has risen for three consecutive weeks, with an increase of 1.23% this week, closing at 3023.31 USD/ounce.

In the cryptocurrency market, the BTC spot ETF has shown breakthrough performance, ending the previous trend of fund outflows for five consecutive weeks. This week, the ETF recorded a net inflow of $1.05 billion, becoming a key factor supporting the rebound of BTC prices. Meanwhile, the stablecoin market has also shown a positive trend, with an inflow of $958 million for the entire week.

Overall, the total capital inflow from various channels reached $1.95 billion, providing strong support for the market. The performance of the BTC spot ETF once again highlights its importance in the market, but its trend is closely related to the US stock market, increasing the complexity of BTC price predictions.

As the price rebounds, market selling pressure has significantly weakened, dropping to 114,992 BTC. Long-term holders reduced their holdings by 3,284 coins, while short-term holders sold off 111,709 coins. It is worth noting that the total holdings of long-term holders increased by 73,000 coins, while the exchange's BTC inventory decreased by nearly 7,000 coins, indicating that long-term investors remain confident in the current price level.

According to the data from market analysis tools, the current BTC cycle indicator is 0.375, indicating that the market is in an upward continuation phase. This indicator provides investors with an important reference for market cycles.