Ancient Bitcoin Address Suddenly Activated, Causing Market Fluctuation

On Friday, 8 ancient Bitcoin addresses that had been dormant for 14 years suddenly became active, triggering a brief panic in the market. These addresses collectively hold 80,000 Bitcoins, which analysis suggests may belong to an independent miner from 2011. This miner accumulated rewards from 180 blocks that year and once held 200,000 Bitcoins, making them the fifth largest whale in Bitcoin history.

The holding cost of these Bitcoins is only $1.76 per coin. At the current price of $108,000, the unrealized profit reaches as high as 61,000 times. A large-scale sell-off would undoubtedly have a huge impact on the market. Considering that a previous sell-off of about 50,000 Bitcoins in 2024 triggered a market turbulence lasting several months, with a maximum decline of 32%, the potential selling pressure of 80,000 Bitcoins could lead to even more severe market fluctuations.

According to a study conducted in 2020, bitcoins that have not moved for a decade have only a 0.5% chance of re-entering market circulation. Therefore, addresses that have held coins for more than ten years without any transaction records are usually considered permanently lost. Regarding the awakening of these dormant bitcoins, there are mainly three theories circulating in the market:

1. A person who was imprisoned for illegal fundraising and mining has been released early and has regained the right to dispose of assets.

2. An ancient miner unexpectedly recovered the hard drive that stored the private key.

3. The main force behind this round of Bitcoin rise is aligned with a certain whale, activating these Bitcoins to test market reactions and reduce market sensitivity to large fluctuations, preparing for the subsequent distribution of chips.

Currently, the third possibility seems more likely. The main basis for this is: First, after this whale acquired 80,000 Bitcoins, it only transferred them to a new Address without further action, which aligns with the regular security management behavior of large holders; second, after the news broke, the Bitcoin market price only slightly dropped by 1.09%, and there were no obvious signs of a run from the funds. This indicates that the whale may not intend to sell off on a large scale in the short term, and the market leaders do not see this as an uncontrollable factor.

Meanwhile, a series of recent policy moves by the U.S. government are worth paying attention to. On July 4th, the "Great and Beautiful Act" was officially signed and took effect, marking the launch of a new round of large-scale tax cuts and fiscal spending plans. This act is expected to result in an increase in the federal budget deficit of up to $5 trillion, far exceeding the previous round of fiscal expansion policies.

Although this may exacerbate the risks of U.S. debt in the long run, in the short term, the bill is expected to increase household income, stimulate consumption, and boost the stock market through measures such as making some tax reductions permanent, raising the standard deduction, and exempting certain taxes, similar to the effect of direct cash payments.

Another potential positive factor is the adjustment of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) in the banking system. The Federal Reserve is considering lowering the SLR requirement for large banks from 5% to 3.5% and may exclude low-risk assets from the leverage ratio calculation. This adjustment is expected to be completed this summer, potentially freeing up about $2 trillion of balance sheet space for large U.S. banks and lowering long-term yields on U.S. Treasuries.

The current macro policy mix in the United States is clear: new debt will be jointly borne by the banking system and the stablecoin legislation, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will provide basic liquidity support for this. This policy loop is expected to operate smoothly in the short term and is likely to continue supporting risk assets to remain strong.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in the main upward wave phase, with short-term market noise only causing intraday level fluctuations. With strong consensus support, the possibility of a deep adjustment for Bitcoin is relatively small. After a brief consolidation, prices are expected to continue rising, with a long-term target range of 127600-137500.