The potential black swan predictions for the current bull run in the crypto world.

The current bull run is still ongoing, with an overall upward fluctuation. The rhythm of taking three steps forward and one step back is quite healthy, and the crazy peak has yet to appear. Yesterday, at 11.8W, I symbolically sold a small amount of coins. It's not that I feel the market has peaked, but rather I want to take action to remind myself that the next step is to escape the peak of BTC—only selling, not buying. ( I need to break my psychological reluctance to sell during a bull market. ) Also, don't think about holding everything until selling at the highest point. Gradually clear my positions, withdrawing while engaging.
The upcoming crypto world still has a lot of good news, and the market is sure to continue for a while. However, the market often faces a sudden drop from a potential black swan when a series of good news is being realized or is in the process of being realized, and everyone is almost fully invested and frantically reluctant to sell while increasing their investment. This is essentially because the bubble cannot be sustained in the later stages, and any slight negative news can trigger sensitive individuals to flee, leading to a stampede and a second, larger scale of fleeing and stampede, followed by a complete escape and stampede. This stage is somewhat like nuclear fission; as long as the critical conditions for fission are met and triggered, it is difficult for traders to retreat unscathed from the fission shockwave. Therefore, it's better to be a bit foolish and sell in batches ahead of time, even if it means selling a bit early and watching from a distance, rather than being forced to make a heartbreaking sacrifice during the fission stampede.
The current market is somewhat dull in the midst of normalcy, and waiting often wears down one’s patience. Instead of idly seeking amusement, why not predict the potential black swans in this round of the crypto world bull run? Who will become the catalyst for the nuclear fission of this bull run? The following predictions are likely to end up being completely off the mark and far from the topic. But what I want to convey is that when the bull run reaches its late stage and the bubbles accumulate significantly, there will surely be some unexpected events that will burst the bubbles, leading to a sudden market reversal and the arrival of a bear market (. Except for those with a probability exceeding 50%, the other probability values are mere fabrications to express their relative likelihood ):
1. After the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to a certain point, it may interrupt the rate cuts or even raise rates again due to inflation rising again or other reasons. Probability: 50%
2.( Currently, the Bitcoin market is highly correlated with the US stock market.) The US stock market has seen weekly and monthly level corrections, with a decline of over 20% for more than 3 months. Probability: over 50%.
3. A medium to large financial crisis occurs in Europe and the United States, leading to liquidity tightening and a sharp decline in the stock market. Probability: over 30%
4. Geopolitical factors have once again introduced significant changes similar to the Russia-Ukraine war, impacting global financial markets. Probability: 10%
5. China has issued policy documents again to crack down on cryptocurrency. Probability 70%
Why do I feel it's a 70% probability? Because in every bull run, the crackdown from the red documents is certain to come, such as in 94 and 519.
Regardless of when the black swan will ultimately break through the bull run bubble and in what form, my advice for the crypto world market in 2025 is as follows:
1. Start actively observing the indicators and various signs of the market reaching its peak from now on.
2. From now until the end of 2025, BTC should generally be sold as it rises, without buying the dip unless there is a significant drop.
3. Even if the sold portion was not sold at the highest point, please do not enter the market again.
4. Reduce leverage as soon as possible (. If there is ), sell off Bitcoin in batches before altcoins.
5. When the black swan clearly appears at the end of the bull run and the split has already occurred, if you can't clear your positions in time or are reluctant to do so, please make sure to immediately convert all altcoins into BTC for protection. #打榜优质内容#