Macro Weekly Report: Trends Awaiting Clarity, US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) Divergent, Market Direction Still Unclear

1. Macroeconomic Review for This Week

1. Market Overview

Market sentiment is at a cyclical low this week. The S&P 500 index of US stocks has fallen below the 200-day moving average, triggering selling from CTA strategies, but the selling is nearing its end. The VIX, or fear index, remains high above 20, and the put/call option ratio has risen, reflecting a strong sense of pessimism in the market.

The cryptocurrency market reacted lukewarmly to a certain country's leader signing relevant strategic reserve policies, mainly due to the policy details falling short of expectations and an overall contraction in risk appetite.

2. Economic Data Analysis

The manufacturing PMI new orders index has fallen below the threshold line, and the employment index is below expectations, indicating that the manufacturing sector is becoming cautious due to tariff impacts. The non-manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating that the service industry is relatively stable but the expansion is slowing down.

A certain Federal Reserve has lowered its first-quarter GDP forecast to -2.4%, but the decline is mainly due to net exports, while consumer spending remains robust.

Employment data shows a slight increase in the unemployment rate, a slowdown in job growth, limited wage growth, and companies tend to extend working hours rather than create new positions.

3. Monetary Policy and Liquidity

A central bank governor stated that they tend to be cautious until tariff policies are clarified. The 2% inflation target remains core, and a short-term rise in inflation will not prompt interest rate hikes. The economic fundamentals remain stable, but if employment continues to be weak, the possibility of rate cuts increases.

In terms of liquidity, a certain central bank has seen marginal improvements in broad liquidity, but market sentiment remains weak.

In the interest rate market, short-term financing rates have decreased, with the market betting on interest rate cuts in the next six months. The yield on 10-year government bonds has turned upward, indicating a slight alleviation of recession expectations.

2. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week

The market is still in a phase of expected speculation, with an unclear trend. Institutional funds tend to be cautious, making it difficult to form a clear direction in the short term.

It is recommended to pay attention to the micro changes in economic data from March to April. The impacts of tariffs, government layoffs, and interest rates are lagging, and confirmation of market trends requires more data support.

One should not be overly pessimistic, as the economy has not significantly deteriorated. Investors should manage their positions well, maintaining a balance between offense and defense, and wait for clearer trend signals.

Important Data Next Week

Pay attention to key data such as CPI, PPI, and consumer confidence index to assess changes in inflation and consumption trends.