The Federal Reserve kept the Intrerest Rate unchanged in July, which was within market expectations; however, Powell's ambiguous attitude sparked a strong reaction from Trump. Before announcing the tariff measures, Trump hinted that Powell should cut rates in September, but Powell maintained a neutral stance and did not give a clear signal.

This attitude infuriated Trump, who immediately took a series of tough measures. First, he announced a 40% tariff on Brazilian products, raising the total tariff rate to 50%. This decision will significantly impact multiple industries in the United States, including the beverage, coffee, and meat industries that rely on Brazilian raw materials. About 70% of the relevant products are exported to the United States, and the tariff increase will directly raise corporate costs and production-side inflation.

At the same time, Trump has adjusted the tariff exemption policy for copper and low-value goods. These measures are expected to increase corporate spending in the short term and have a direct impact on inflation within a month. Meanwhile, Canada has announced an indefinite extension of the trade negotiations originally scheduled to end on August 1, and other countries may follow suit.

Trump's actions are clearly aimed at forcing Powell to cut interest rates. Market analysis suggests that if Powell does not compromise, the rate cut may be delayed until October. Currently, the market's expectation probability for a rate cut in September has dropped from around 60% to 49.6%, and the expectation for the annual rate cut has also been revised down from 44 basis points to 36 basis points.

The future development of the situation remains highly uncertain. If Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintains his current stance, the market environment in August may become more difficult due to the impact of tariffs. Trump may continue to exert pressure through tariff measures to achieve his goal of interest rate cuts. This economic policy game will continue to affect global markets, and investors need to closely monitor the developments.