Market Dynamics and Trend Analysis

Political and Macroeconomic Situation

Trump recently stated that he "very likely will not" seek a third term and hinted that current Vice President Vance could become the Republican presidential candidate in 2028. He emphasized that it is still too early to make a final decision. Trump plans to finalize new nominees for the Federal Reserve Board this week, and the candidate list has been narrowed down to four people. At the same time, he intends to announce new tariff policies on drugs and chips in the near future.

In the economic field, former Treasury Secretaries Paulson and Geithner jointly warned that the U.S. Treasury bond market faces multiple threats. Geithner pointed out that although the current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is relatively moderate, key factors such as the rule of law and the independence of the Federal Reserve are facing unprecedented challenges. Trump's decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics has raised concerns in the market about the credibility of official data, which may particularly affect the inflation-protected securities market linked to the CPI.

However, weak employment data has led the market to generally expect a shift in Federal Reserve policy is imminent. Multiple financial institutions predict that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates as early as September, with a potential range of 25 to 50 basis points, and the final policy rate may fall below 3%.

Overview of the Digital Asset Market

The development momentum of the Web3.0 market in Hong Kong is strong. Analysts point out that Hong Kong-listed companies venturing into the Web3.0 field are not only driving financial innovation but also optimizing operational efficiency and enhancing global competitiveness. This trend is attracting global capital and talent, laying the foundation for Hong Kong to build a mature digital asset ecosystem.

Bitcoin recently fell below the short-term support range, leading to a large number of leveraged long positions being liquidated. Analysts warn that due to weak buying support, prices may further decline. Multiple analysts believe the market may test the support level of $112,000, and if it breaks, it could trigger a deeper adjustment. In the long term, based on liquidity models and historical halving cycles, some analysts predict that the price of Bitcoin may reach between $135,000 and $150,000 around September 2025.

Ethereum's price has rebounded to around $3,650, despite experiencing significant net outflows from its ETF. However, on-chain data shows that institutions and large holders are still actively buying. Notably, recent large ETH transfers have attracted market attention.

Hot Project Updates

A well-known digital currency trading platform has surpassed its competitors in trading volume and token minting quantity over the past 24 hours. The platform's co-founder stated that multiple projects within the ecosystem are performing strongly. As a result, several related tokens are ranked high in trading volume over the past 24 hours, with the TROLL token's increase approaching 100%.

The decentralized derivatives protocol MYX has surged 16 times in the last 7 days and reached a historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 72%. On-chain data suggests that the price spike may be linked to spot and contract interoperations.

It is worth noting that the Ministry of State Security of China has issued a warning about the risks of biometric data collection, which closely aligns with a certain internationally renowned project, attracting market attention.

Market Data Overview

• Bitcoin Price: $113,525, Year-to-Date Increase of 21.98%
• Ethereum price: $3,582.39, year-to-date increase of 8.91%
• Market Sentiment Index: 54 (Neutral)
• The market shares of Bitcoin and Ethereum are 61.1% and 11.8%, respectively.
• The total amount of liquidation in 24 hours is $358 million, with Bitcoin and Ethereum accounting for $56.7791 million and $114 million respectively.

Important Event Outlook

• A certain blockchain project will launch a new product on August 6.
• The implementation date for Trump's reciprocal tariff policy has been postponed to August 7.
• Multiple projects will unlock tokens in the near future, which may affect market liquidity.

Market Performance Highlights

Among the top 100 tokens by market cap on that day, Pump.fun, Saros, and Curve DAO performed notably well, with increases of 11.5%, 4.1%, and 2.2%, respectively.