Whale Holdings Analysis Reveals Trends in the Crypto Market

In the ever-changing crypto market, the movements of large players have always been an important indicator of market trends. By analyzing the latest leaderboard data from a decentralized derivatives exchange, we gain insight into the real flow of "smart money." As of July 30, the large players on this exchange's leaderboard opened positions worth $4.6 billion, with long positions dominating at $3 billion. However, beneath this seemingly optimistic overall data lies a starkly contrasting strategy divergence: traders firmly bullish on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH are simultaneously shorting numerous small-cap tokens. What does this significant divergence indicate for the future direction of the market?

Overall Trend: Bulls Still Dominate, But There Are Signs of Cooling Enthusiasm

From a macro data perspective, bullish forces are currently still in the ascendancy. As of July 30, the total holdings of top traders on the exchange amount to approximately $4.6 billion, with long positions around $3 billion and short positions about $1.57 billion, resulting in an overall long-short ratio of approximately 66%.

However, beneath the optimistic data lies a cautious signal. First, the bullish trend has shown a downward trajectory, with the long-short ratio retreating from the peak of 76% on July 27. Second, in terms of profit efficiency, the performance of short positions is more outstanding: among the tokens that large holders are bearish on, as much as 79% of the positions are in profit; while among the tokens they are bullish on, this ratio is only 53.5%. This indicates that although large holders tend to be bullish overall, their short-term bearish decisions are more likely to be profitable.

In addition, a data platform shows that among the top 125 wallet addresses of this exchange, the short Holdings have also become the main force, which has diverged from the smaller wallet addresses. The positions of smaller amount addresses generally still show bullish sentiment.

Whale Big Data: Stick to the mainstream, short small market cap

The core strategy divergence among large holders is reflected in their choice of tokens, presenting a clear picture of "sticking to the mainstream and shorting small market cap."

In terms of mainstream assets, whales have shown a strong bullish stance. Taking BTC and ETH, which have the highest positions, as examples, their long-to-short ratios far exceed 66%. Specifically for BTC, the total long position amounts to 1.2 billion dollars, while the short position is only 479 million dollars. Interestingly, the average liquidation distance for short positions is as long as 48.3%, much higher than the 14% for longs, suggesting that many short positions may not be purely bearish, but rather hedging orders for risk management. Additionally, tokens such as TON (with a position of 19.83 million dollars) and AAVE (with a position of 25.18 million dollars) also have high long-to-short ratios, making them some of the few small-cap tokens favored by whales.

However, the attitude of whales towards other small-cap tokens is completely different. A series of tokens including FARTCOIN, PUMP, DOGE, SUI, BONK, PEPE, and even BNB have a long-short ratio of less than 50%, indicating that the bears are in control. For tokens like MOODENG, SYRUP, S, and JUP, the long-short ratio is even below 10%, showing extreme bearish sentiment. These short positions are generally in profit, further confirming the effectiveness of the whales' shorting decisions.

Overall data shows that although the bullish trend of all tokens remains mainstream, there has been a downward trend since July 27, with the long-short ratio dropping from over 76% the previous day to 66% on July 28. Among the tokens that whales are bullish on, 53.5% are overall in profit. Among the 29 tokens that are generally bearish, 79% are overall in profit.

Specifically regarding the data on BTC, 71.7% of the traders in the leaderboard have long positions, totaling $1.2 billion in long positions. The average entry price is about $114,000, and the average liquidation distance is 14%, with an overall profit of $27.82 million. In terms of short data, the positions are significantly less, around $479 million, with an average entry price of $115,000, but the average liquidation distance still stands at 48.3%, indicating that the whales' short positions seem to be more inclined towards hedging orders.

In terms of position size, the average long position for BTC whales is 10 million USD, while the average short position is about 7.98 million USD.

Top Traders: Bullish in the Long Term, Neutral or Short-Term Shorting

In addition to the overall data, the attitudes of top traders also seem to provide some insight into the market sentiment.

The trader with the highest profit on this exchange currently has a total profit of approximately $54.86 million. This trader's profit curve has been steadily rising since December 2024, making them a relatively stable and persistent trader.

His holdings currently appear relatively balanced in terms of total amount, with both long and short positions around 63 million USD. In terms of specific token selections, he mostly holds short positions, with a few long positions. Among them, the position with the highest unrealized profit is FARTCOIN, which he shorted at 1.44 USD, and the current unrealized profit has reached 1.12 million USD. Of his 16 profitable orders, only 2 are long positions with unrealized profit. AAVE has an unrealized profit of 976,000 USD. From his holdings, it is basically consistent with big data, maintaining long positions on BTC and ETH, but looking bearish on small market cap tokens in the short term.

The second-ranked trader currently has a profit of approximately $35 million. This trader clearly maintains a long-term optimistic outlook on the market, with all of his Holdings being long positions, and an overall leverage of only 3.6 times. In terms of duration, this trader is evidently a long-term trader, with the opening price of his long position in ETH being only $2812, the opening price for BTC being $110,000, and SOL at $142, almost all being held for the long term. However, his long positions have not all realized profits, with a floating loss of $235,000 in FARTCOIN, a floating loss of $45,000 in BIGTIME, and a floating loss of $18,000 in STRK. The remaining orders are all in profit, with just the long position in ETH generating a floating profit of $7.21 million.

The third-largest trader has achieved a floating profit of 40 million USD (in fact, he should be the second trader in terms of floating profit). In this trader's holdings, 78% of the positions are short. This trader appears to be a short-term trader, with an average holding time of less than 2 hours. Currently, his positions are not large, and he seems to be in a wait-and-see stance regarding the market.

From the holdings of these traders, it can be seen that long-term traders remain generally optimistic about the future, while short-term traders tend to be more bearish or are reducing their positions to observe.

In summary, the data of the whales on this exchange depicts a market picture of "sticking to the mainstream and shorting small market cap." Although the overall holdings lean towards bullish, this optimistic sentiment is mainly concentrated on a few core assets like BTC and ETH, and its advantages have shown a downward trend. At the same time, the short positions of the whales on small-cap tokens are not only numerous but also have a higher profit ratio, indicating their general bearish sentiment towards high-risk assets and effective harvesting. From the personal strategies of top traders, long-term investors remain optimistic and patient, while short-term traders tend to be more cautious in shorting or holding. For ordinary investors, understanding the whales' "dual" strategy may be more important than simply following the bullish or bearish direction.

Risk Warning: The content of this article is based on the analysis of publicly available data and is for information reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice or opinion. The encryption market is highly risky, with severe price fluctuations. Investment should be approached with caution, and you must engage in independent thinking and bear all risks on your own.