Courtney Carlsen's Guide: Three Promising Rare Earth Mining Stocks for 2026

As the U.S. continues to reduce its reliance on Chinese critical minerals, industry analyst Courtney Carlsen has identified three domestic mining companies worth watching this year. The rare earth sector is experiencing renewed investor interest amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with American policymakers pushing to establish domestic mining, processing, and production capabilities. According to Carlsen’s latest analysis, these three emerging players—MP Materials (NYSE: MP), The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC), and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR)—represent compelling opportunities for investors seeking exposure to the domestic critical minerals supply chain.

MP Materials: Securing North America’s Rare Earth Future

MP Materials stands as the only operator of a large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America. The company’s Mountain Pass facility in California remains one of just two major light rare earth production plants outside China, producing refined rare-earth oxides including Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide—a critical component in powerful magnets for electric vehicles, hard drives, and consumer electronics.

The company has taken a bold strategic move by halting all product sales to China starting last year, aligning with U.S. national security priorities. A significant portion of NdPr metal production currently occurs through tolling arrangements with Southeast Asian processors, though MP’s newly operational Independence Facility in Texas is changing this dynamic. The facility began contributing revenue in early 2025, marking a key milestone in the company’s vertical integration strategy.

Looking ahead, MP Materials is planning an ambitious expansion through its 10X Facility, which would dramatically increase domestic magnet manufacturing from 1,000 to 10,000 metric tons annually. This capacity expansion underscores management’s confidence in growing U.S. demand for domestically produced rare earth materials.

The Metals Company: Mining the Ocean Floor for Critical Resources

The Metals Company is pursuing an unconventional strategy to secure critical minerals by extracting polymetallic nodules from the ocean floor. These nodules contain significant concentrations of nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese—all essential for battery production and renewable energy infrastructure.

TMC is targeting the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in international waters, approximately 1,500 miles west of San Diego. In spring 2025, the company’s subsidiary submitted the world’s first commercial seabed mining permit application to NOAA. Recent regulatory progress has been notable: in late January, NOAA finalized rules enabling consolidated applications for both exploration and commercial recovery permits. TMC rapidly capitalized on this development by submitting an expanded application a day later, increasing its proposed mining area from 25,000 to roughly 65,000 square kilometers.

The timeline for commercial viability remains extended. TMC projects potential permit approval by late 2026, with infrastructure deployment likely occurring in 2027 or 2028 at the earliest, and actual production beginning around 2029. While the timeline is lengthy, successful execution would position the company as a pioneering provider of seafloor minerals to the U.S. market.

USA Rare Earth: Building the Complete “Mine-to-Magnet” Supply Chain

USA Rare Earth is advancing an ambitious plan to establish a fully integrated domestic supply chain for rare earth products. The company’s facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma is in final commissioning stages, with commercial-scale production of Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdPr) magnets targeted for early 2026. These magnets are essential components in defense systems, automotive applications, and industrial equipment.

To secure independent feedstock supplies outside China, USA Rare Earth completed its acquisition of UK-based Less Common Metals for $100 million in cash plus 6.74 million shares last year. The company is also developing its Round Top Project in Texas, which holds significant deposits of heavy rare earth, gallium, and beryllium, though production wouldn’t commence before 2028.

The most significant recent development came in late January when the Trump administration announced a $1.6 billion strategic investment in the company, acquiring a 10% equity stake. This capital injection includes $1.3 billion in senior secured debt through the CHIPS Act finance facility and $277 million in direct funding. The government received 16.1 million shares and 17.6 million stock warrants at $17.17 per share, signaling strong political commitment to domestic rare earth production.

Evaluating the Investment Opportunity and Risks

According to Courtney Carlsen’s analysis, these three companies represent a compelling bet on America’s push for supply chain independence in critical minerals. If successfully executed, the long-term profit potential could be substantial for patient investors. However, investors should approach with appropriate caution.

These are speculative, early-stage enterprises with lengthy development timelines ahead. Mining operations are inherently capital-intensive, and establishing new processing capabilities requires significant time and resources. The rare earth sector is cyclical, influenced by commodity prices, geopolitical dynamics, and regulatory changes. Technical or permitting delays could compress returns, while market downturns could pressure stock valuations.

Investment Guidance: Risk Management is Essential

Courtney Carlsen emphasizes that investors should only allocate capital they’re comfortable potentially losing in these high-risk positions. A diversified investment approach is crucial—these rare earth stocks should represent only a small portion of a broader portfolio. The promise of future domestic production is compelling, but execution risk remains substantial.

Before making any investment decisions, carefully consider whether these speculative companies align with your risk tolerance and investment timeline. The rare earth sector offers genuine opportunities for those willing to wait for multi-year development cycles to bear fruit, but timing and patience will ultimately determine investment success.