#周末行情分析

Bitcoin struggles to break oscillation pattern, altcoins focus on capital hotspots

The weekend market has been getting increasingly lively lately. Bitcoin surged upward last night, breaking through $73,000 in one go, but subsequently began to pull back, indicating that without major positive news catalysts, Bitcoin still struggles to break through the $65,000-$73,000 major oscillation range.

👉 Technical landscape: Don't forget we're still in a bear market

First, we must face a fact: Bitcoin is still in a bear market cycle. Don't expect Bitcoin to break through multiple resistance levels and surge to $80,000 or higher all at once. Currently, every resistance level exerts obvious price suppression. From the daily chart perspective, there is pressure near the Bollinger Band upper band at 72,500. Even if short-term penetration occurs, there is pullback pressure. From the weekly chart, the MA10 moving average at 75,700 is a strong resistance level. From the current market, it is quite difficult for Bitcoin to reach this position. At any point above 72,000, one can short.

👉 News: Iran-US conflict continues to escalate, is the US economy facing a "stagflation" crisis?

Iran launched multiple strikes against US military forces in the Middle East today, while the US bombed important Iranian oil ports. Currently, the war's impact on the crypto market has been largely digested, and Bitcoin has developed its own oscillation rhythm. Additionally, the risk of US economic "stagflation" is also affecting the direction of risk assets. One should pay attention to whether upcoming US economic data will constitute subsequent bearish catalysts. If so, it will also suppress crypto prices. Of course, if the Iran-US conflict ends, Bitcoin may have short-term momentum to rally, but breaking through the strong resistance at 75,700 would be difficult. However, in the absence of major news changes currently, the oscillation range will be difficult to break in the short term.

👉 Trading suggestions: Short at highs and long at lows within the oscillation range

The saying goes "follow the trend." Since the market (whales) has already recognized the $65,000-$73,000 oscillation range in the short term, let's follow along. Short-term traders can take action: establish long positions below 67,000 with stops below 65,000; establish short positions above 72,000, with aggressive traders positioning shorts above 70,000. Stop losses above 75,000.

👉 Altcoins: Major altcoins remain short-at-highs-long-at-lows, while monitoring capital hotspots

Major altcoins have recently oscillated along with Bitcoin, with Dogecoin being a typical example, ranging back and forth between 0.086-0.11. If you've been shorting at highs and longing at lows, you're probably exhausted from profits.

As for other altcoins, recently it can be said to be "chaos," with capital cyclically hype strong coins. However, if Bitcoin shows a pullback in the short term, altcoins also risk a cooling-off in speculation. If you want to participate, be sure to control your position size. You can enter Trump, RIVER and other strong coins with small positions on dips, and set stop losses accordingly.