Odaily Planet Daily Reported that the regulatory review delays driven by the US SEC have prevented the initial batch of prediction market-related ETF products from launching as scheduled, and the listing times of related products have been postponed. Several institutions, including Roundhill Investments, GraniteShares, and Bitwise Asset Management, submitted over 20 ETF applications related to prediction markets in February this year, covering event-driven products such as election results, economic recessions, tech layoffs, and commodity prices. According to SEC rules, ETFs typically become effective automatically within 75 days after submission unless the regulator requests further review. The original plan was to launch these products this week, but due to the SEC's request for issuers to supplement product mechanisms and disclosure details, the listing times have been forced to be delayed.

SmartContractAuditor

2026-05-04 12:16:20

Odaily Planet Daily报道由美国SEC推动的监管审查延迟，导致首批与预测市场相关的ETF产品未能按时推出，相关产品上市时间被推迟。包括Roundhill Investments、GraniteShares以及Bitwise Asset Management在内的多家机构，于今年2月提交了超过20只与预测市场相关的ETF申请，涵盖选举结果、经济衰退、科技裁员及大宗商品价格等事件驱动型产品。

根据SEC规则，ETF在提交后通常可在75天内自动生效，除非监管机构提出进一步审查。本轮产品原预计本周启动，但由于SEC要求发行方补充产品机制与披露细节，上市时间被迫推迟。相关人士表示，该延迟可能为短期性调整。这些ETF产品通常通过衍生品工具追踪“是/否”型事件概率，例如选举结果或经济指标，并与由CFTC监管的预测市场平台（如Kalshi）挂钩，每份合约在事件发生时支付1美元，否则归零。

尽管预测市场交易近期因政治事件与地缘冲突交易活跃度提升而快速增长，但也引发关于内幕交易与市场操纵的监管关注。Bitwise首席投资官表示，创新金融产品通常需要较长监管周期，但最终仍可能成功落地，并强调预测市场ETF或将成为零售投资者接触事件交易的新渠道。（路透社）

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