$BTC Is Bitcoin really about to break through? But I discovered some interesting data.
I looked back at recent price actions and found a pattern.
This is really hard to say is just a coincidence.
I analyzed Bitcoin's performance after the last 4 Federal Reserve rate-setting meetings:
Almost every time after a rate decision, BTC experiences a continuous pullback of roughly two weeks,
with drawdowns basically ranging from 10%—20%+
Here's the question:
Will this happen again this time?
From a probability standpoint, I think the likelihood is not insignificant.
Two reasons:
First, a similar pattern appearing 4 consecutive times is hard to chalk up to pure chance.
Second, this rate decision result is still "no rate cut,"
which is inherently a bearish signal for risk assets.
There's another detail worth noting:
In the two weeks before these 4 rate meetings, the market rallied in 3 of those instances.
In other words:
The more the market rises before a rate decision, the higher the probability of a reversal after.
And the recent rally we've seen is actually somewhat repeating this rhythm.
Back to the current market:
Bitcoin has rebounded to the upper end of the 69,000—72,000 oscillation zone.
Can we still short here?
Honestly, I'm still somewhat tempted to try.
But this approach might not be short-term; rather, it's a longer-term positioning strategy.
If looking at it short-term:
If it pulls back, it would likely first test around 69,000—70,000, which already provides decent room.
If the market breaks upward, I'll exit on just a small breakout above the zone, with acceptable overall risk-reward.
However, considering the rate meeting is approaching,
I'm more inclined to gradually build short positions this time.
My plan is roughly:
Around 72,000: first short position
Around 74,000: second add-on
Using only 2x leverage in total, not chasing short-term explosions, and not planning to stop out easily.
If the market does move lower,
the target is still around 60,000+.
If caught short-term, I'll treat it as batch position building.
Looking at Ethereum separately:
The notable strong resistance is roughly around 2,240.
If price reaches this level, I personally would lean toward shorting on rallies.
I mentioned yesterday's strategy to everyone: within the oscillation zone, short rallies and long dips in the short term.
Short above 70,000, take profits around 69,000.
Take it easy, go slowly.
