Viewpoint: Bitcoin's four-year cycle has ended, and a new "two-year cycle" will begin.

Odaily News Bitwise advisor Jeff Park stated that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is driven by a combination of mining economics and behavioral psychology, but in the future, Bitcoin will follow a “two-year cycle” driven by a combination of “fund manager economics” and “ETF footprint determining behavioral psychology.” He believes that in the old cycle, the supply shock from Halving and the subsequent reflexive crowd behavior were reliable driving factors, but the influence of the supply side is no longer what it used to be. The analysis of the new cycle is based on three main assumptions: investors evaluate Bitcoin investments within a one to two-year framework. The professional investor funds flowing through ETFs will dominate Bitcoin's liquidity, with ETFs becoming the tracking proxy indicators. The analysis does not take into account (but remains the largest supply setter in the market) the selling behavior of OG Whales. Jeff Park suggested that in the asset management industry, year-to-date profit (YTD P&L) is a key factor, as annual performance determines fund fees (especially for hedge funds). When fund managers do not have enough early profits as a buffer, they tend to sell their highest-risk positions as the year-end approaches. A research report pointed out that capital inflows mechanically push up returns, which in turn attract more inflows; this reversal process takes nearly two years. Based on this, he analyzed the possible scenarios for fund managers assessing Bitcoin positions: Scenario 1 (2024): Bitcoin rises by 100%, far exceeding the 30% institutional compound annual growth rate (CAGR) threshold. Scenario 2 (2025): Bitcoin is down 7% year-to-date, and to achieve the target, investors need to gain over 50% returns in the next two years. Scenario 3 (holding for two years): Investors have gained 85%, slightly above the 70% return required by the 30% CAGR. At this point, rational fund managers may consider selling to lock in profits, protect their reputation, and demonstrate the value of their “Risk Management” as a premium service. Jeff Park believes that Bitcoin is currently approaching an increasingly important price level of $84,000, which is the entire cost basis of ETFs from inception to now. He pointed out that most of the positive profits from ETFs come from 2024, while the ETF inflows in 2025 have almost no profit (except for March). The largest monthly inflow occurred in October 2024 (when BTC had reached $70,000). He explained that this setup could be bearish, as those who invested at the end of 2024 but did not meet the return threshold will face decision nodes as the two-year period approaches. If the market enters a Bear Market, the reason will no longer be the four-year cycle, but rather that the two-year cycle failed to allow fund managers to introduce new capital at the correct entry points to offset the profit-taking behavior of exiting investors. He concluded that the future will not only be about monitoring the average cost basis of ETF holders but will also focus on the average profit moving trends categorized by the time of purchase. He believes that this will be the greatest source of pressure on the liquidity supply and circuit breaker mechanisms for Bitcoin's price movement in the future, leading to a “dynamic two-year cycle.” He emphasized that if Bitcoin's price stagnates, it will be negative for institutional era Bitcoin, as asset management is a “capital cost” business; if Bitcoin's return on investment compresses below 30% due to flat prices, it will lead to investor sales. He believes that buyers (fund managers) are more predictable than in the past four-year cycles, and the importance of supply constraints is decreasing, meaning that this more predictable behavior will dominate.