$HYPE Token price prediction: Can the key support level hold? Is the future a Rebound or a continued bottoming out?

Currently, HYPE is hovering around a “critical success or failure zone” frequently mentioned by analysts. According to the latest data from Gate's market, as of December 2, HYPE is priced at 31.5 USD, having risen 5.8% in the last 24 hours, showing signs of temporary stabilization.

However, the nearly 27% drop in the last 30 days and the circulating market value of 10.62 billion USD (ranked 11th in the market) clearly reveal the intense fluctuations and uncertainties the market has experienced over the past month.

01 Market Status and Recent Fluctuations

The HYPE token has undergone severe tests amid recent fluctuations in the crypto market. According to Gate market data, its price has significantly retraced by 27% over the past 30 days, falling from its peak.

This downward trend is consistent with the adjustment pace of the entire cryptocurrency market. In November, Bitcoin's monthly price drop reached 17.28%, and a cautious sentiment pervades the market.

One of the direct catalysts for market fluctuations was a token unlock event at the end of November. At that time, approximately 175 million HYPE tokens worth about 9.5 billion dollars were released into the market.

Despite the concerns of a massive sell-off, on-chain data reveals an interesting divergence: only 23% of unlocked tokens were sold immediately, while as much as 40% were re-staked, and another 35% were retained by holders, indicating that internal participants of the project still maintain a considerable level of confidence.

02 Key Technical Levels and Chart Pattern Analysis

Currently, all analysts are focused on the price range of 31 to 32 dollars. This area has been tested repeatedly and is widely regarded as the key support cluster that will determine the short-term fate of HYPE.

If this support is lost, the next important liquidity area to watch is around $29.50, and in extreme cases, it may further drop to the range of $25 to $27.

From the chart pattern perspective, the trend of HYPE presents a complex technical structure. On one hand, the price has broken below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern (around 37 to 38 dollars), which is typically seen as a bearish signal and opens up theoretical space for lower price targets.

On the other hand, some analysts have observed that HYPE is currently trading in a downward channel. If this pattern is accompanied by an increase in trading volume and achieves an upward breakout, it may signal a trend reversal.

The direct resistance level above is around 34 to 35 dollars, which is an area that the price has attempted to break through multiple times recently but has failed to hold. The more important resistance level is between 36 and 37 dollars, and successfully reclaiming this level is widely seen as the first technical signal of a substantial change in market momentum.

03 Core Fundamentals and On-Chain Activities

Setting aside price fluctuations, the HYPE-backed Hyperliquid protocol demonstrates strong fundamentals. This protocol has become a leading venue for on-chain perpetual contract trading, hailed as a “massive cash printing machine.”

Its core advantage lies in creating real, scalable revenue. Data shows that the Hyperliquid protocol can generate approximately $1.21 billion in revenue annually, and nearly all of this revenue is used through the aid fund to repurchase and destroy HYPE tokens from the market, forming a deflationary mechanism.

Unlike many DeFi projects that rely on token incentives to maintain activity, Hyperliquid's incentive emissions are zero. This means that its high fees are driven entirely by real user demand, rather than “mining” farming activities, resulting in a healthier financial situation.

Recently, Hyperliquid has opened a new chapter of growth through the HIP-3 upgrade. This upgrade allows for the launch of new markets without permission and provides traders in these new markets with up to 90% reduction in trading fees, aiming to actively expand its share in the long-tail asset derivatives market.

04 Future Scenarios under Bull and Bear Competition

The divergence in the market paints a starkly different future scenario for HYPE.

bullish scenario

The realization of a bullish scenario requires confirmation of several key steps. First, the price must firmly hold the support at $31 to $32, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume.

Subsequently, it is necessary to successfully break through and stabilize in the resistance area of 36 to 37 dollars, which will complete a partial repair of the previous breakdown pattern and attract the return of trend traders.

Once the above conditions are met, the first target for the medium-term rebound is around 42 to 43 dollars, where there is a historical dense trading area.

Some analysis based on the descending channel pattern has provided a more optimistic target. If we can effectively break through the upper boundary of the channel, the theoretical technical target could reach the range of 55 to 60 dollars.

bearish scenario

The trigger point for a bearish scenario is relatively clear: it is when the price effectively breaks below the key support of 31 dollars. Once this occurs, the technical structure will become fragile.

The first downside target will be the liquidity area around 29.50 dollars. If the overall cryptocurrency market sentiment continues to deteriorate, prices may further drop to the range of 25 to 27 dollars.

This trend will confirm the continuation of the downward trend, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, with bears continuing to dominate the situation.

05 Comprehensive Risk Assessment and Market Outlook

Currently, there is a significant divergence in market views surrounding HYPE. Some analysts view the past 52% price correction as a healthy adjustment within the rising trend, noting that indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that the asset may be in an oversold condition.

At the same time, on-chain data provides some positive signals diverging from the price. For example, there is data showing that the well-known investment firm Pantera Capital increased its holdings of HYPE worth approximately $517,000 during the price decline, while a daily repurchase of about $50,000 is also ongoing.

However, the risks cannot be ignored. The price movement of HYPE still shows a high correlation with Bitcoin, and this correlation can amplify its downside risk when the macro market faces pressure.

For investors, adopting a risk-first strategy is crucial. This includes strictly controlling position sizes to avoid excessive exposure to a single asset, as well as considering setting stop-loss orders below key support levels to guard against potential accelerated declines after a support failure.

Future Outlook

The price chart of HYPE has formed a hesitant doji near $31.5. Below, the support zone between $31 and $32 acts like a breakwater, having withstood multiple impacts over the past month.

On-chain data shows that despite weak prices, the Hyperliquid protocol still generates over $30 million in trading fees daily, and the engine of this “cash printer” has not stopped.

The next direction of the market depends on whether the real purchasing power can overwhelm the panic selling after the new supply is digested. Trading volume will be the most honest referee—any price breakout without accompanying volume may turn into a trap in the next second.