CEX Report: The market is approaching a local bottom and is transitioning to a consolidation phase.

On December 2, CEX released a report stating that “Last week, Bitcoin saw a significant rebound, which aligns with our previous view that from a time dimension perspective, the market is approaching a local bottom, although it remains to be seen whether the price-level bottom has been established. However, with extreme deleveraging, capitulation of short-term holders, and signs of weakness from sellers, we believe the market has laid the groundwork for the onset of a stabilization phase. On-chain indicators further corroborate this view: the adjusted spent profit ratio has only fallen below 1 for the third time since early 2024, consistent with the loss realization dynamics observed at previous cyclical lows (August 2024 and April 2025). The current loss depth can also be seen from the realized losses adjusted for entities, soaring daily to $403.4 million, exceeding the measurement levels of previous major lows. This level of realized loss typically indicates that capitulation is nearing completion rather than the beginning of a deeper downturn. Meanwhile, derivatives data show that the market is undergoing a controlled reset: the total open interest (OI) of BTC futures has dropped to $59.17 billion, well below the peak of $94.12 billion, indicating that leverage is being orderly digested. OI continues to contract while spot prices rise, showing that the market is more about short covering rather than a new round of speculative risk accumulation, further reinforcing the view that the market is transitioning to a more stable consolidation phase, with reduced vulnerability and the potential to establish a sustained recovery bottom in the fourth quarter.”