#周末行情分析

Bitcoin Struggles to Break Oscillation Pattern, Altcoins Focus on Capital Hotspots

The market has become increasingly lively recently on weekends. Last night, Bitcoin surged upward and broke through $73,000 in one go; however, it subsequently began to decline, indicating that without major positive news catalysts, Bitcoin still struggles to break through the large oscillation range of $65,000-$73,000.

👉 Technical Analysis - Macro Environment: Don't Forget We're Still in a Bear Market

First, we must face a fact: Bitcoin is still in a bear market cycle. Don't expect Bitcoin to suddenly break through multiple resistance levels and surge to $80,000 or higher. Currently, every resistance level creates obvious pressure on prices. From the daily chart perspective, there is pressure near the Bollinger Bands upper rail at 72,500; even if penetrated in the short term, there is pullback pressure. On the weekly chart, the MA10 moving average at 75,700 is a strong resistance level. From the current market conditions, it's quite difficult for BTC to reach this position. Above 72,000 are suitable shorting points.

👉 News: Iran-US Conflict Continues to Escalate, Is the US Economy Facing a "Stagflation" Crisis?

Iran launched multiple rounds of strikes against US military forces in the Middle East today, while the US bombed an important Iranian oil port. Currently, the war's impact on the crypto sector has been largely priced in, and Bitcoin has established its own oscillation rhythm. Additionally, the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy is affecting the direction of risk assets. Pay attention to whether upcoming US economic data will constitute subsequent bearish factors; if so, it will also pressure coin prices. Of course, if the Iran-US conflict ends, Bitcoin might have upward momentum in the short term, but breaking through the strong resistance at 75,700 would be difficult. However, without significant changes in the news environment, the oscillation range is unlikely to break in the near term.

👉 Operation Suggestions: Go Short at Highs and Long at Lows Within the Oscillation Range

"Following the trend" means that since the market (whales) has acknowledged the $65,000-$73,000 oscillation range in the short term, we should follow suit. Short-term traders can take action: set up long positions below 67,000 with stop loss below 65,000; set up short positions above 72,000, with aggressive traders able to short above 70,000 with stop loss above 75,000.

👉 Altcoins: Mainstream Altcoins Continue High Shorts and Low Longs, Pay Attention to Capital Hotspots

Mainstream altcoins recently have been "oscillating numb" along with Bitcoin. A typical example is Dogecoin, oscillating within the 0.086-0.11 range. If trading high shorts and low longs, profits might have been squeezed.

Regarding other altcoins, recently it can be said to be "all demons dancing wildly," with capital rotating hype among strong coins. However, if Bitcoin shows pullback in the short term, altcoins also face the risk of hype retreating. If you want to participate, control your position size well. You can enter with small positions into strong coins like Trump and RIVER on dips, and set stop losses accordingly.