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Bitcoin的价格走势预测,关键在于采用哪套理论框架。
支持4年周期论的人指出,从87k突破到100k再回调到30k的走势符合历史规律。这套理论强调的是市场的周期性重复。
但从商业周期和主流采用的角度看,故事会更不一样——87k启动后冲高到105k,随后调整到64k,最终目标指向250k。这个逻辑链强调的是长期增长势能。
现实永远介于两者之间。纯粹的周期论忽视了采用曲线的加速,而激进的增长论又低估了市场的波动特性。真正要把握的,其实是这两股力量的平衡点——周期存在,但每个周期的高度和幅度在变化。
30k还是250k,反正我是赔得一样快