"Whales Return to the Battlefield After Eight Years of Silence: The Macro Chess Game and Wind Direction Password Behind $267 Million ETH Long Orders" - The movement of whales is one of the most important on-chain passwords in the market, which is worth cross-verifying under the macro framework. My credo is: trust the signals, but never take all the risks. The position of a giant whale is an important weather vane, but it is by no means our entire combat map. My strategy must combine his behavior, tonight's macro ruling, and the structure of the market itself. Core judgment: The logic of the whale is verified by my framework First of all, I agree with most of the core of this whale's analysis. His behavior pattern (silence - key point shot - left layout) is indeed the tactic of top macro traders. He shifted the main battlefield from BTC to ETH, pointing to a core logic: if macro liquidity turns, ETH, which has high beta and ecological and derivative narrative expectations, will be much more resilient than BTC, which has partially fulfilled the "digital gold" narrative. However, there are two things to note: Can whales make mistakes? Yes. Before the Luna crash in 2022, many on-chain "smart money" also increased their positions significantly. They bet in the right direction, but underestimated the magnitude of the black swan. Therefore, we must prepare for his "mistakes" or "delayed market reactions". His presence changed the structure of the market. This whale itself has become a market signal that will attract followers. This can lead to early or overreaction of the market, requiring us to be more vigilant about short-term "long and short double kill" washes. My decision-making framework remains unchanged: the results of the Fed's decision are the highest instructions, and the whale movement is an important flank signal. 1: Continuing from the previous article, scenario A (dovish exceeding expectations) or strong B (neutral but dovish wording) Market Status: Liquidity expectations improve, risk assets are carnival. ETH leads the market, altcoins rotate. 1. ETH (Main Attack Direction) Logic: Follow the logic of whales and go long with the strongest expectations and the highest elasticity in the market. Open a position: Breakout chase position: After the price effectively breaks through and stands firm at $3,220 (confirming the breakthrough of the upper edge of the "firecracker pattern"), buy the market price immediately. This is a key trigger signal. Confirm the position of retracement: After the breakout, pending order buy when stepping back on the 3150-3180 support range for the first time. Stop loss: $3,100 (below the whale-intensive cost zone, logic may fail). Take Profit: First target: $3,350 (close 1/2). Second target: $3,600 (close the remaining 1/2). The remaining positions push protective stop losses to win the trend continuation. 2. BTC (Stability Ballast Stone) Logic: the general leader of the market, the engine of the market. If ETH is strong, BTC will not be absent, but the increase may be slightly lower. Open a position: Homeopathic position: After the price breaks through $98,000 or stands above $95,000, the market price buys. Support position: Pending order to buy when stepping back on the strong support area of 92000-93500. Stop loss: $90,000 (key psychological and structural support). Take Profit: First target: $102,000. Second target: $105,000 (near the previous high). 3. Altcoins (Rotation Income Enhancement) Coin selection logic: It is necessary to choose a leader with high liquidity, practical business, and strong correlation with the ETH ecosystem to ensure that funds can go in and out. The best two: 1. Optimism (OP) / Arbitrum (ARB): Choose one of them. They are the absolute leader of ETH Layer2. The rise of ETH will directly drive its ecological TVL and valuation, and the recent decline has been deep, and there is room to make up for the rise. Ambush position: Pending orders near $2.5 (OP) or $1.2 (ARB) respectively. The stop loss is set below the previous low (OP: 2.2, ARB: 1.05). 2. Uniswap (UNI): The king of DeFi and the most direct beneficiary of the activity of the ETH ecosystem. The V4 upgrade is a potential catalyst. Ambush position: $9.5-$10 range. Stop loss of $8.8. Take profit: The altcoin fluctuates greatly, and the use of moving take profit. After setting a 20% principal protection loss, the target is to see a 30%-50% increase. 2: Continuing from the previous content, scenario B (standard neutral, shock-based) Market status: high and wide range shocks, rapid rotation of sectors, and discontinuous trends. Policy Adjustments: The total position fell below 50%. Give up breaking through and chasing high, and only sell high and buy low. Buy orders are placed on the lower edge of BTC (92000-96000) and ETH (3000-3200) ranges, and sell orders are placed on the upper edge. Suspend the layout of altcoins, due to the poor sustainability of rotation, it is easy to trap people. Wait for a directional option to break out or break below the range. Three: Continuing from the previous article, Scenario C (hawkish surprise, triggering a callback) Market state: Panic falls, indiscriminate selling. Policy Adjustments: Stop all long position opening plans immediately. Core mission: protect the principal and wait for the hunting moment. Battle plan: BTC ambush zone: $80,000 (first), $75,000 (core). At each position, buy in batches. ETH ambush zone: $2,700 (first), $2,400-$2,500 (core). At each position, buy in batches. No altcoins are touched at this time. The ultimate reminder Signal first, price second: After the resolution, don't rush to operate. Wait for Powell's speech to end, and the market uses at least 1-hour candlesticks to digest and choose the direction. The whale's "cold start" funds are prepared for this, and we must have the same patience. Discipline above all else: all the above stops must be strictly enforced. Emotions are the enemy: when ETH skyrockets, you will regret buying less; When it plummets, you will be afraid to buy. Use planning to overcome emotions and deal with uncertainty with position management. Tonight, no matter how the market is interpreted, you and I already have a complete battle map. A real senior trader wins in the plan, wins in risk control, and succeeds in execution. Stay calm and wait for the starting gun to fire. Forward this article so that more comrades-in-arms can understand the whale signal and no longer miss the main rising wave. Follow me to track whale positions, institutional capital flows and macro policy signals, take you through the market fog, and anchor deterministic opportunities! #美联储降息预测 #加密市场反弹 #反弹币种推荐 #今日你看涨还是看跌？ #广场发帖领$50

#发帖赢代币NIGHT #PostToWinNIGHT $NIGHT, the launch directly gives you an "ankle cut" (90% drop), and there is hard logic behind this. 1. 🌌 $NIGHT (Midnight Network): Why is there an "ankle cut"? You said it fell by 90%, but it is not unfair at all. The data doesn't lie, let's take a look at the "three killers" behind this. 🔪 Killer One: The terrifying "Glacier Drop" ( Glacier Airdrop ) Data Truth: The scale of this airdrop is in the billions (total supply is 24 billion, airdrop is billions). Although the official has a "Thawing" mechanism, which is said to be released in 360-450 antennas, on the first day of launch, there is a large number of initial unlocks. Crowd tactics: The airdrop covered more than 170,000 wallet addresses (Snapshots even included holders of BTC, ETH, SOL, etc.). What does this mean? It means that there are hundreds of thousands of people holding free chips in their hands, and as long as there is a price at the opening, their only action is to sell. Smashing logic: For these "wool parties", the cost is 0. Selling 0.1U is earning, and selling 0.02U is also earning. This kind of "regardless of cost" selling pressure cannot be caught by the gods. 🔪 Killer two: Misaligned FDVs ( fully dilute valuation ) Valuation Trap: The FDV corresponding to the opening high (about $0.11-$0.12) is $2 billion-$3 billion. Analysis: Brother, this is a side chain! In the current market environment, why is a privacy sidechain that has not yet run through business logic on a large scale valued at billions of dollars? The market voted with its feet, thinking it was only worth 0.02-0.04U (corresponding to hundreds of millions of dollars in FDV), so the price had to fall to find this "true value range". 🔪 Killer 3: The "retreat" of market makers Market observation: The opening wave of Wick is usually played by market makers (MM) to provide liquidity, but in the face of massive airdrop selling pressure from retail investors, market makers will not be stupid to take over. After they withdraw the buy order, there is a vacuum below, and the price naturally plummets thousands of miles until it smashes out of the "golden pit". 📈 About the current "pullback": Reason: When it fell to around 0.02U, FDV became "reasonable" (about $500 million), and with liquidity support, smart funds began to enter the market to buy an "oversold rebound". That's why you can see it pulling up a little from the bottom. $night $NIGHT ‌