The altcoin market faces another winter: finding real yield projects becomes the key to breaking the deadlock

A notable feature of the cryptocurrency market this year has been the lack of sustained price increases. This trend is evident not only in small tokens on trading platforms but also in on-chain tokens that performed well in the fourth quarter of 2024, which are now facing significant declines.

Data shows that among the major tokens in the AI agent sector, Virtual, Ai16z, AIXBT, etc. all experienced declines of over 60% by 2025, with the most severe drop reaching 85.5%. Although this large-scale price drop cannot directly determine the future of the sector, it does reflect a significant loss of market attention, a situation that is difficult to reverse in the short term.

Similarly, the celebrity tokens led by Trump have also faced a brutal market reaction. After falling from their highs, tokens like Trump, Melania, and Vine have seen declines of over 70%, with some even approaching a 99% drop. This phenomenon confirms the characteristic of the cryptocurrency market of "favoring new over old," but compared to the AI agent sector, the declines in the celebrity token market are even more severe.

In the face of the current difficulties in these two areas, we need to consider: Is there still a possibility for breakthroughs in the market in the absence of emerging narratives?

![Alts enter a cold winter again, what should we do?](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-3c8682a9be08c3deaf2fd94bb0213195.webp01

Current Narrative Dilemma: Concept Hype Prevails, Substantial Applications are Scarce

The main issue in the AI agency field is that most projects are still at the stage of conceptual demonstration and future planning, lacking practical and widely promotable products. Even when some actionable services are launched, they often struggle to attract ordinary investors due to complex interfaces and poor user experience. Worse still, some project teams over-exaggerate narratives to meet market expectations and drive up prices, but fail to deliver on their promises in a timely manner, leading to investors' patience running out and capital beginning to withdraw.

The celebrity token space faces the challenge of "celebrity effect decay." Although Trump's entry once sparked a craze, subsequent politicians, internet celebrities, and stars have struggled to replicate such a level of market reaction. The ongoing decline in market enthusiasm has resulted in celebrity tokens exhibiting ephemeral characteristics, leading to a rapid loss of investor confidence.

The fundamental reason for the significant volatility in these areas is that many projects remain at the level of conceptual hype, lacking substantial and sustainable revenue models. Whether it's AI agents or celebrity tokens, their core appeal relies on the rapid influx of capital and popularity, yet they lack the motivation for users to participate long-term. Once the hype subsides, it becomes difficult to maintain the price and attract new inflows of funds.

Searching for Real Yield Projects: The Way to Break Through

In the current market environment characterized by narrative fatigue, the key to standing out is to find projects that offer "real returns" and are "willing to share with users." "Real returns" refer not just to the short-term bubbles that occur when being listed on exchanges, but to the ability to generate ongoing returns through actual business models and trading activities, and to pass these returns on to token holders or ecosystem participants.

A typical example is Hyperliquid. This project has a business model similar to centralized trading platforms, with the main revenue coming from contract trading fees. However, what makes Hyperliquid unique is that it uses 100% of the fees to repurchase Hype tokens, thereby closely linking the coin price to product performance.

According to the data, Hyperliquid accounts for about 45% of the 24-hour trading volume among all decentralized perpetual contract exchanges, with an average daily trading volume of $3.78 billion and daily revenue of approximately $1 million. Even in the current market downturn, it maintains a very high level of activity. This also explains why, during the recent winter faced by most alts, the price of Hype's coin still performed strongly.

Regardless of how popular a narrative may be, the projects that can ultimately exist long-term in the crypto market are those that find product-market fit, possess high user stickiness, and deliver real returns. When choosing investment targets, investors should pay more attention to the actual application value and sustainable development capabilities of the project, rather than merely chasing short-term trends.