Whether the four-year cycle still exists is a hot topic of debate in the community. On one side are those shouting "the cycle is dead," believing that Bitcoin's size has grown, the macro environment has changed, and the old four-year pattern should be obsolete. On the other side are those citing historical data, pointing to bottoms every few years on the K-line charts, insisting that the cycle hasn't changed. Ben's examples are quite practical. In 2022, the market bottomed out, as it did in 2018. Going further back, the 2020 crash due to the pandemic created an even deeper dip, but the rhythm still roughly follows a low point every four years. These points are not arbitrarily drawn after the fact. Interestingly, he emphasizes that this is not unique to Bitcoin. Bitcoin itself does not create cycles, but it is indeed highly sensitive to the current market. In his words, Bitcoin is more like it can "sense" market weakness. That is to say, Bitcoin is not the origin of the cycle but a reflection of the cycle in asset prices. This shifts the debate from "Does the Bitcoin cycle still exist?" to "Is the market cycle still effective?" In other words, the behavioral patterns of market participants haven't changed. The four-year span coincides with the human emotional rhythm of panic, greed, and panic again. The macro narrative and policy environment have changed, but people's aversion to losses and desire for quick wealth haven't evolved enough to break this rhythm. $ETH

Trump delivered a nationwide speech on the Iran situation at 9:00 AM Beijing time today (April 2nd). The core message is that the United States may end its military operations against Iran within 2-3 weeks. The market generally interprets "the war is over" as a major positive signal. The market views Bitcoin and Ethereum as "risk assets." The end of the war means reduced geopolitical uncertainty and a rebound in risk appetite, leading funds to flow from safe-haven assets into stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other high-risk sectors. This directly drove a price rebound. Before the speech, Bitcoin broke through $68,000, and Ethereum surpassed $2,100. Institutional funds also show signs of returning; in March, the US Bitcoin ETF ended four consecutive months of net outflows and turned into a net inflow of $1.2 billion. However, the market may have already priced in some of these positives. Data shows that investors are still selling into the rebound ("silent distribution"), and on-chain data suggests that the true "market bottom" may not yet be confirmed—currently, the price is still 21% above the network's average cost basis, meaning most people are still in profit. Historically, major bottoms often require prices to fall below the cost basis. If oil prices, although retreating, remain high, persistent inflation could force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, which would exert medium-term pressure on cryptocurrency prices. The roles of gold and silver are relatively complex and are no longer purely safe-haven assets. The current rise is mainly driven by the "dollar decline" and "interest rate cut expectations."