#四月行情预测 April Market Outlook: Bulls and Bears Intertwined, Key Levels Set the Direction
At the start of April, Bitcoin broke above $68,000, and Ethereum retook the $2,100 level. The market seems to sense a hint of warming. However, behind the optimistic sentiment, signals from technical, capital, and macro perspectives are quite complex. This article combines the latest data to analyze the core logic and key levels of April’s market from both bullish and bearish angles.
📊 Key Levels for April
Support Levels
BTC
65,000-67,000
Bull-Bear Divide
67,000
Resistance Levels
70,000-72,000
Breakout Target
75,900
Ethereum (ETH)
Support Levels
1,980 - 2,000
Bull-Bear Divide
2,000
Resistance Levels
2,130 - 2,166
Breakout Target
2,200 - 2,400
🟢 Factors Supporting April’s Uptrend
1. Geopolitical Tensions Easing, Risk Sentiment Improving
In March, Bitcoin posted its first monthly gain since September last year, ending five consecutive months of decline. The key catalyst was geopolitical: Iran’s president signaled an end to conflicts, and Trump hinted at possibly halting military actions, directly boosting risk asset sentiment. Digital asset hedge fund Apollo Crypto stated, “Bitcoin is showing strong resilience around $68,000.”
2. Historical Seasonal Trends
Historically, April is one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Since 2013, the average April gain has been 13%, with a probability of over 60% for positive returns. Ethereum also benefits from seasonal support, with an average increase of about 18% in April and a median over 9%. Although 2026’s January-February broke this pattern, it still provides psychological support for the market.
3. On-Chain Supply Tightening
Data shows Ethereum’s staked ETH has surpassed 38 million, accounting for over 31% of the total supply. Currently, staking queues require about 50 days, while withdrawal queues are nearly empty, indicating holders are still locking in their tokens. This supply tightening diverges from the weakening price trend, suggesting that demand recovery could trigger a strong rebound.
🔴 Risks Suppressing the Market
1. Technical Bearish Structure
On Bitcoin’s daily chart, all major moving averages are above the current price: 10-day around $67,832, 50-day around $71,005, and 200-day at $85,095. This alignment means every rebound faces multiple layers of resistance.
Ethereum also faces resistance near the 2,160 USD 50-day exponential moving average. More concerning is a hidden bearish divergence on the 3-day chart: price forms lower highs while RSI forms higher highs, often indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.
2. Diminishing Institutional Momentum
In March, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.13 billion, but in the last week, there was a net outflow of $296 million. Ethereum ETFs experienced a small inflow of only $4.9 million at month’s end after eight days of outflows. This suggests institutional buying slowed significantly toward the end of March. Meanwhile, the whale ratio (measuring large inflows to exchanges) surged from 0.34 in January to 0.79 on March 28, indicating large holders are still transferring tokens to exchanges.
3. Options Market Betting on Downside
Deribit data shows over $1.5 billion in put options clustered around the $60,000 strike. This indicates a large amount of capital is hedging against Bitcoin falling below $60,000—if key support fails, these options could accelerate the downward move.
4. Holder Confidence Waning
For Ethereum, the 30-day net accumulation of holders (holding over 155 days) plummeted from 543,000 ETH on March 21 to 122,000 ETH at month’s end—a 78% drop. This pattern closely resembles the pre-drop in February, when similar signals preceded a roughly 46% decline in ETH.
📈 April Outlook: Defense and Counterattack
Considering the above bullish and bearish factors, April is likely to follow a “defend first, then decide the direction” pattern.
Bitcoin’s critical support is in the $65,000–$67,000 range. Holding this zone could allow a rebound to continue; a daily close below $67,000, combined with weakening ETF flows, might trigger the next decline.
Downside targets: $60,000 (psychological level) → $57,000 → $52,600 (Fibonacci 0.618).
Reversal signals: Reclaim and sustain above $70,000–$72,000; if Bitcoin can recover the March high of $75,900, the bearish structure would be invalidated.
Ethereum (ETH) short-term focus is on the $2,000 psychological level. A daily close below $2,000 would confirm the loss of the upward trend.
Downside targets: $1,750–$1,730 (February lows) → $1,350 (about 30% lower than current levels).
Reversal signals: Break above $2,200 resistance, then challenge the upper channel at $2,390.
💎 In summary, April’s market is at a delicate crossroads. Optimistic scenario: geopolitical tensions ease further + ETF flows return + $65,000 support holds → rebound toward $70,000–$72,000.
Pessimistic scenario: macro disruptions recur + institutional buying weakens further + $65,000 support fails → decline to $60,000 or lower. Tokenize Capital partner Hayden Hughes notes: “April may regain volatility; even if a rebound occurs initially due to expectations of ending the war, the fundamentals for the year still point downward—risks like supply chain disruptions, high household debt, and private credit pressures are not fully priced in.”
For retail investors, controlling positions and strictly managing key levels before the trend clarifies might be the safer approach.
Do you think Bitcoin can hold $65,000 in April? Share your thoughts in the comments!
