#创作者冲榜 Gold "Spot" Breaks Below 4500, Silver Falls Below 68 USD - Short-term Correction or Trend Reversal?
Gold has fallen, and fallen hard.
On March 21st, spot gold broke below 4500 USD intraday, with COMEX gold futures closing at 4574 USD and silver futures at 69.6 USD. This wasn't even the worst of it—gold fell for eight consecutive trading days, marking the largest single-week decline in 15 years, dropping nearly 10% in one week. Silver was even more brutal, falling over 14% in a week. Keep in mind, on March 2nd, gold was still hovering around 5400 USD. In just over half a month, it dropped nearly 1000 USD. The Middle East has become a powder keg, yet gold has deflated like a punctured balloon, rolling downward continuously.
What's going on? Shouldn't war drive prices up? Can you believe what Trump says? It might not just be about islands anymore—it could be aimed directly at Tehran. This isn't necessarily about regime change.
The Inverted Logic
Let's trace this from the beginning.
The gold rally from 2025 to early 2026, which surged from over 3000 USD to 5400 USD, was driven by three forces: global central banks frantically buying gold, countries accelerating de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks emerging continuously. All three pointed to one conclusion: the US dollar's credibility is shaking; gold is the ultimate currency.
But after the Iran-US conflict erupted in late February, the script changed. The most direct impact from the conflict was oil prices. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Brent crude soared from 70 USD to over 100 USD, even briefly touching 109 USD intraday.
By logic, surging oil prices should fuel inflation expectations, pulling capital into gold. But this time it's different. 80% of global oil trades are settled in US dollars, and Middle Eastern petro-states' currencies are pegged to the dollar. When oil prices rise, dollar demand rises with it. This creates an awkward situation: rising oil prices should favor gold, but rising oil prices simultaneously boost the dollar, which is bearish for gold. The latter force temporarily overwhelms the former. So gold finds itself roasted over the fire.
The Federal Reserve Delivers the Harshest Blow
The bigger trouble comes from Powell. On March 18th, after the Fed's meeting concluded, they announced no rate changes, maintaining rates at 3.5%-3.75%. That's not the key point—the key is the dot plot changed. The expected number of rate cuts in 2026 was slashed directly from three to one, and some are even discussing potential rate hikes. Powell said something at the press conference that sent chills through the market: "If inflation makes no substantial progress, rate cuts won't be considered." He also said the committee has started discussing "whether rate hikes might be possible next," though it's not yet the baseline scenario for most, but hearing this from Powell's mouth itself is a signal. This fundamentally shifted market logic.
At the beginning of the year, everyone expected the Fed to cut 150 basis points this year. Now? CME data shows the market's probability of rate cuts this year has dropped below 10%. There's also word that rate hike expectations once soared to 60.4%—when that number dropped, the market exploded directly—sell gold first, buy dollars. Thus gold futures plummeted instantly, the dollar index surged instantly. The two formed a classic X-shaped crossover.
This is gold's most awkward position now: gold generates no interest, dollars do generate interest. When hedge funds are trading the dollar liquidity crisis moment. When real interest rates are elevated, even surging wildly, capital naturally flows toward dollar assets. Moreover, the dollar index has firmly held above 100, making the opportunity cost of holding gold frighteningly high.
Another Overlooked Reason: It's Gone Up Too Much; Gold Has Its Own Problems
As of late February, gold's premium relative to its 5-year average hit its highest level since 1980, with volatility at 2.4 times that of the S&P 500 index. In other words, gold has transformed from a store of value into a speculative instrument. More speculative positions mean naturally larger swings. When market volatility turns severe, investors need to raise funds to meet margin calls and rebalance portfolios—gold, being one of the most liquid assets, often gets dumped first.
JPMorgan data shows that when the panic index (VIX) exceeds 30 and continues rising, gold's weekly probability of gains is only 45%, with average returns negative. It's not that gold itself has a problem—it's that investors need to sell gold to cover holes in other positions.
There's another indicator worth watching: the gold-oil ratio. This ratio normally stays in the 16-20x range, with a normal band of 10-25x. But the current gold-oil ratio far exceeds 30x, indicating the market is in an extremely abnormal state—either gold is too expensive, or oil is too cheap, or both. Gold's current decline is somewhat correcting this ratio back. Medium to long term? Not necessarily a bad thing.
Short-term pain aside, none of the several major fundamentals supporting gold's rise have been broken.
First, the Middle East situation won't cool down that quickly. Iran's weapons have been dispersed and decentralized; how many resources would the US need to invest to completely take it down? This requires accounting. Also, don't underestimate the determination of a nation unwilling to perish, nor underestimate the Islamic faith system's alternative perspective on "death"—these metaphysical things are hard to quantify with military models.
Second, de-dollarization continues. Since 2014, central banks have been quietly net-selling US Treasuries while frantically hoarding physical gold. The central banks' central bank—the Bank for International Settlements—has already classified gold as a Tier 1 reserve asset. Global official gold reserves have for the first time since 1996 exceeded US Treasury holdings. Global central banks have made net gold purchases for 16 consecutive years, with 2025 net gold purchases reaching 863 tons, accounting for 25% of global mine production.
Third, the petrodollar is showing cracks. China is building a "yuan + oil + gold" system—establishing vaults in Saudi Arabia; as long as you settle oil in offshore yuan, you can freely exchange it for gold. This is a clear signal: dismantling the old "petrodollar" system is not just talk.
Fourth, the US itself is also eyeing gold. A Société Générale report revealed key information: America's gold reserves are still valued on the books at the 1973 rate of 42.22 USD per ounce. If revalued at market prices, it would generate about 2.1 trillion USD in accounting gains, representing 5% to 6% of US total debt. While this doesn't solve fundamental problems, it can buy America some time.
What's Next?
In the short term, gold might trend toward 4400 USD—that's the key support level from January's crash. If broken again, technically, the next support is at 4000 USD.
But the medium to long-term fundamentals haven't changed. JPMorgan forecasts gold could reach 6300 USD by Q4 2026, and Deutsche Bank also maintains a long-term target of 6000 USD.
The critical question now is: will the US actually get dragged into a prolonged war? If it truly becomes long-term, they'll have to issue new debt, debt ratios will soar, deficits will expand, inflation will be astronomical—at that point, the market will finally realize that gold is the last straw that breaks the dollar's back.
So the strategy is simple: follow short-term panic, but don't abandon your core position. When it truly crashes to the level others fear, then make your move. Gold's fundamentals haven't broken—if they had, the dollar would have risen long ago. Where is the dollar now? Just above 100, still far from its peak strength of 115.
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