米国の暗号資産取引サービスにおける競争激化の中、Coinbase株はリスクにさらされているのか？

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Is Coinbase stock at risk ahead of Schwab crypto trading launch? Original Link:

Market Context

Coinbase stock wavered on December 4, as the recent recovery faded and concerns about intensifying competition in the U.S. market rose. COIN was trading at $186, down by 1.3% from its previous closing price, and remains down approximately 40% below its July peak.

Competitive Threats

A key risk for Coinbase is the emergence of major American companies launching crypto trading services, significantly increasing market competition.

SoFi, a company with over 12 million customers, recently relaunched its crypto services, allowing customers to consolidate all their trading on a single platform.

Charles Schwab, a major player with over 38 million active brokerage accounts and nearly $12 trillion in assets, will launch crypto trading services in January. The service will initially offer Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with plans to expand to additional cryptocurrencies over time.

Additionally, other crypto companies like certain major exchanges are working to relaunch their U.S. services, coinciding with encouraging regulatory progress in the current administration.

Growth Concerns

Analysts expect Coinbase’s growth will slow down:

• Q4 revenue estimate: $1.96 billion (down 13.5% year-over-year)
• Q1 estimate: $2.03 billion (down 0.31% year-over-year)
• Earnings per share expected to decline from $9.49 in 2024 to $8.08 in 2025, then further to $6.85 in 2026

Profits may deteriorate further if the company is forced to reduce fees to compete with rising competition.

Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows COIN has pulled back from the October high of $400 to current levels around $277. Key technical observations:

• Stock remains below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level
• Dropped below the critical support at $290 (August-September low)
• Death cross pattern forming as the 50-day and 200-day EMA spreads narrow, signaling potential bearish reversal
• Risk of price declining to $200 support level if the key resistance at $290 breaks down

A break-and-retest of the $290 resistance would confirm continuation patterns, but downside risks appear elevated given technical weakness.