This week I noticed the movement of major cryptocurrencies was quite interesting before the Fed decision. Bitcoin briefly touched $75,912 but immediately dropped back below $74,400, clearly showing that the rally was more driven by derivatives activity than new demand from buyers. But looking at the weekly chart, all major tokens have actually increased significantly. Bitcoin up 9%, Ether 11%, XRP 3%, Solana 5%, Dogecoin 2%, and BNB also up 3% in the past week. This is the broadest rally since before the Iran situation escalated. What’s interesting is that institutional fund flow data remains solid. The spot Bitcoin ETF absorbed around $767 million over three consecutive weeks, a sharp reversal from outflows of more than $3 billion earlier this year. This pattern indicates that institutional confidence is starting to return to Bitcoin. Additionally, I see the performance gap between Bitcoin and gold has narrowed drastically. Where Bitcoin previously lagged far behind, now Bitcoin is outperforming gold by 13% since early March. Their correlation has also shifted from negative to positive, so the narrative of digital gold is starting to revive. As the Fed meeting runs today through Wednesday, the market still considers the interest rate decision as a non-event because expectations remain at 3.5% to 3.75%. What will determine the crypto direction until the end of March are the dot plot and Powell’s press conference. With oil above $100 and the labor market beginning to weaken, the Fed is caught between two mandates. How Powell frames this tension could be a game changer for risk assets next week.

Just caught something on the charts worth paying attention to. XRP just printed its biggest realized loss spike since 2022, and we're talking about $1.93 billion in actual losses for the week. That's the kind of panic selling you only see when holders finally give up and lock in their losses instead of hoping for a bounce. Here's the thing though. The last time we saw realized losses at this scale, back in 2022, XRP went on to rally 114% over the next eight months. Not saying history repeats, but it definitely rhymes. When this much capitulation happens in one move, it usually means the weak hands get flushed out all at once. Coins move from emotional traders to longer-term buyers, and that can actually create a more stable base for price recovery. But I'm not getting ahead of myself. The panic selling signal is there, but we've got macro headwinds, regulatory uncertainty, and volatile conditions across the board right now. A single capitulation print doesn't guarantee a durable rebound. The real test is whether spot demand stabilizes after this and sell pressure actually eases. If realized losses stay elevated or spike again, that tells you distribution isn't done yet. For now, the data is pointing to emotional extremes, which historically has been a decent setup for bounces. Just need to see if it sticks.