The weak strategy under the relay consolidation after the Ethereum bearish flag breakout and the impact of the exchange rate.

The core logic and the falling drive of the flag breakout.
• Effectiveness of the bearish flag breakout: A significant volume drop below the flag on an hourly basis, with no rebound reclaiming the interior, confirms the continuation of the downtrend—support at $3741 temporarily halts the decline, indicating a consolidation in a downtrend; if it cannot hold, it will test the position indicated by the right-side yellow arrow, showing clear signs of weakness;
• The linkage effect of exchange rate pullback: The decline of the second contract is related to the exchange rate pullback, with 3704 USD on the 4-hour level being the key defense line. If broken, it will look down to 3595 USD, forming a pullback ladder with the support below at 3654 USD.
Key Level Trading Strategy
• Long Position Conditions:
1. Volume breaks 3771 USD → right side chasing more (only short), target 3803 → 3839 USD, recover stop loss;
2. Pull back to confirm support at $3695 → light position to try long, stop loss if it falls below $3652;
3. Long position of 3633 USD on the left side, stop loss if it falls below 3595 USD (deep pullback for low absorption, need to wait for a stop-loss signal).
• Short Selling Conditions:
1. The volume falls below $3745 → short on the right side, target $3707 → $3654, unable to recover the stop loss on the pullback;
2. 4-hour level falls below $3704 → increase short position, targeting $3595, resonating with hourly targets;
3. 3741 US dollars support failure → Short to the yellow arrow position, need volume confirmation.
The operating principles of patterns and relay consolidation
• Weak continuation after flag breakout:
◦ Relay consolidation is a brief pause during the fall process, which does not indicate a reversal. If the rebound is weak, it will continue to decline. $3803 is a short-term strength line; if it cannot break through, the weakness will be maintained.
• Priority of defending support level:
◦ 3741 USD > 3704 USD, if the former breaks down, it will accelerate the decline. The operation will mainly focus on short positions, and long positions will only be for very short rebounds.
Summary: The weak pattern of Ethereum has not changed. The core operation: follow up on short positions relying on the break below $3745, long positions are limited to short-term and quick in and out. After relay consolidation, a further fall is highly likely, do not blindly catch the bottom.