U.S. Economy at a Critical Point: 48% Probability of Recession Next Year as Employment Slowdown Draws Attention

According to reports, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, stated that the agency's latest machine learning leading indicators show that as of August, the probability of the U.S. entering a recession in the next year is 48%. He noted that although this reading is below the 50% threshold, historically, when the probability approaches or exceeds the 40% range, it often coincides with or follows a recession. Zandi also mentioned that the slowdown in employment and consecutive downward revisions of data put the economy at a critical point.