Bitcoin Strategic Reserve This is a very exciting and forward-looking topic. The discussions by the U.S. Treasury and bipartisan lawmakers themselves mark a fundamental shift in the status of Bitcoin within the global financial system. Let me share my thoughts:

This is by no means a baseless claim, but an inevitable topic arising from the evolution of the global financial landscape. Incorporating BTC into strategic reserves carries a symbolic significance far greater than the actual purchase volume itself. This represents the recognition of Bitcoin's "digital gold" value storage property at the level of national sovereignty and serves as the ultimate endorsement of it as a new asset class.

· The supporting viewpoint is correct and forward-looking: In the context of global de-dollarization, geopolitical turmoil, and the frenzied "money printing" by central banks around the world, seeking non-sovereign, censorship-resistant, globally circulating scarce assets as reserves is a logical risk hedging strategy. BTC complements gold (traditional and stable) rather than replacing it.
· The concerns of the opposing party are real and need to be addressed: volatility and regulation are indeed two major obstacles. However, note that "strategic reserves" do not equate to "short-term trading positions." The perspective of national reserves spans decades or even longer, and short-term price fluctuations will be muted in the face of long-term trends. Regulatory gaps are precisely filled through serious discussions like this.

This will be an epic "narrative nuclear bomb".

· The signal is invincible: This is no longer an action at the level of companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla, but rather a national action by the global financial hegemon, the United States. It will transmit an undeniable signal to the global market: Bitcoin is a legitimate and important strategic asset. All countries, sovereign funds, and giant enterprises that are still on the sidelines will completely put aside their concerns and accelerate their allocation.
· The FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect will reach its peak: Once the United States starts purchasing, it will not only bring hundreds of billions or even over a trillion dollars in potential buying power, but will also trigger a competitive chase from other countries around the world, fearing that they are "getting on the train" too late. This competitive purchasing among nations will become the most powerful fuel for the bull market.
· Resonating with spot ETFs: Spot ETFs provide a compliant entry point for traditional institutions and retail investors, while national strategic reserves serve as the "ultimate certification." The two will create a powerful synergy to jointly drive the bull market.

Therefore, it is by no means just a "trigger"; it is also the "main driver" that can propel the bull market to unprecedented heights.

Institutional entry drives up prices, how much do you predict BTC will reach in the short/long term? Will it challenge 200,000 US dollars?

$200,000 is not only a challenging target, but it may even be a conservative estimate within the next halving cycle (2024-2028).

· Short-term (1-2 years): If the proposal is approved and starts to be executed, market sentiment will be instantly ignited. A short-term surge to the range of $100,000 to $150,000 is completely imaginable. However, the process will inevitably be accompanied by huge fluctuations and corrections.
· Long-term (5-10 years):
· Logic-driven: Prices are determined by supply and demand. Demand side: The United States + possibly following G7 countries, global sovereign wealth funds, and giant enterprises (Apple, Google, etc. may be forced to reconsider their balance sheet allocation) will create massive demand. Supply side: Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million coins, and over 70% of it has not been moved for a long time, making liquidity supply extremely scarce.
· Model Estimate: Popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, as well as comparison models based on the global total market value of gold (approximately $13-15 trillion), point to astonishing long-term targets.
· If Bitcoin reaches the market value level of gold (1.3 trillion USD), the price per coin will exceed 600,000 USD.
· Even if it only reaches 1/4 or 1/2 of the gold market value, the price range is between 150,000 and 300,000 USD.
· Conclusion: With the support of the grand narrative of national strategic reserves, the long-term price target of Bitcoin will be anchored to the global demand for value storage, rather than merely as a speculative asset. Challenging 200,000 USD is a high probability event, and we might even see higher peaks.

· Timeline: There is a light-year distance between "discussion" and "approval."
· Fastest Scenario (Optimistic): 2025-2026. This requires a quick consensus to form from the current discussions, the two parties working together to promote legislation, and the president's signature. During this period, a series of technical issues such as custody, regulation, and enforcement also need to be resolved. This is a lengthy political and legislative process.
· More likely scenario: This is a strategic issue that spans several years. It may first be tried in the form of a "pilot" or "small allocation" in a certain government fund (perhaps not a major reserve of the Treasury, but other funds), and then gradually promoted. Full implementation may take 5 years or even longer.
· Key Point: The results of the U.S. presidential election in November 2024 will be a crucial indicator. The different attitudes of governments towards cryptocurrency will directly determine the pace of progress in this matter.
· Will other countries follow suit?
· Absolutely, and it will be very quick. This will be a reshuffling of the global financial order.
· First tier: Traditional allies of the United States, such as the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Japan, and South Korea, may quickly initiate similar research and discussions to avoid falling behind in financial innovation and asset reserves.
· Second tier: Countries that have adopted a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies or are seeking "de-dollarization," such as El Salvador (already implemented), Switzerland, Singapore, the UAE, and some Eastern European countries. They will take action more quickly.
· Third tier: Some emerging economies and resource-rich countries may use Bitcoin reserves as a strategic tool to combat domestic currency inflation and break free from the constraints of the dollar system.
· China? The possibility in the short term is extremely low, but in the long term, if Bitcoin is widely accepted by major economies around the world, China may change its attitude in order to maintain its financial influence and asset diversity, although the process will be very cautious.

The discussion of the U.S. incorporating BTC into its strategic reserves is a key step for Bitcoin toward becoming a mature asset. If realized, it will trigger an unprecedented bull market, with long-term price targets aimed at over $200,000 and potentially higher. Although the implementation process is long and tortuous, the global chain reaction it will provoke is undoubtedly certain. This is not just about price; it is about a profound transformation in the global monetary system's landscape for the next century. #BTC战略储备市场影响#