As soon as the market experiences a big pump, there will be predictions about how much it will rise in the future, leading to a bull run.
As long as the market continues to fall for a few days, there will be predictions about how much it will fall next, and the bull run is about to end.
In the past few days, the leading cryptocurrency has seen a pullback, and some people are starting to say that this round is a trap for the bulls, and there will be a big drop next. When it rises, they are bullish; when it falls, they are bearish. Do we still need professional analysis? Isn’t it enough to operate buying and selling based on the market movements? The answer is obviously no; otherwise, anyone could make money.
A bull run is a relay race, not a 100-meter sprint. Each rising cycle in the crypto market has its own internal operating context. Grasping this context is often more critical than closely watching the market; it can indicate where funds are currently flowing and where you should start to position yourself. To survive in the crypto space for the long term, one must rely on thinking about the underlying logic to judge future trends, rather than judging future prices based on short-term market movements.
For most friends who are new to the circle, the anxiety of holding positions will actually always be present, especially now when they have just seen hope and their accounts show floating profits. Many people fail to achieve big results because they encounter psychological problems during this period of high volatility, leading to random operations. Either they listen to others saying they want to make a small swing trade, or they hear people saying they want to short, or they listen to others talking about chasing certain worthless coins. They are always listening to others, but they lack independent thinking and operational plans.
Recently, ETH rose from 1400 to 4700, and people in the community started predicting that ETH would reach 8k, 10k, or even 20k. In fact, most of those who are optimistic about ETH now were still complaining about it a few months ago and praising SOL, believing that this second-tier asset was garbage and would definitely drop below 1k. As seasoned investors, we've been through too many of these scenarios. Indeed, everyone has the right to express their opinions, but some of the shouting in public is driven by profit motives. If you blindly follow along with your hard-earned money without thinking, the subscription fees might earn you a little, the transaction fee rebates might earn you a little, and even the liquidation losses can earn you a little. Have you heard of the left hand and right hand holding both positions?
If you don't, just try a few times, and you will understand.
A long time ago, we discussed the reasons for the market's stagnation. First, the interest rate cut cycle for 2025 has not yet started; second, the trading volume of contracts has already surpassed that of spot trading, and the market's trading methods are completely different from before. The current time node is the most torturous; experienced traders know that when the price reaches this position, it is the turning point where the bulls and bears call each other fools. The market at this critical point is like this: it allows those who firmly believe in a bull run to see hope, while also giving the brave short sellers the courage to roll up their sleeves and work hard. If there were no glimmer of hope, how could anyone place a bet?
Regarding market trend analysis, we have actually talked a lot before. Currently, the weekly chart is in a bull run, and the overall direction has not yet peaked. The daily chart indicates a short-term pullback, and it should continue to fluctuate and pull back in the coming days. I will be waiting for signs of a reversal at the psychological support levels on the market based on whole numbers. For BTC, I'm looking at 11W, and for ETH, I'm looking at 4K. If these values appear, even if they break, I will activate my short-term small positions to take some small swings.
As for the long-term positions, those that needed adjustment have been completed, and the bullets for short positions are ready. Most of the cryptocurrencies held have also shown normal returns. As for how the final returns will turn out, we can only leave it to time to verify.
Unknowingly, we have arrived at mid-August. BTC and ETH have slowly climbed up from the low point at the beginning of April during the Qingming Festival. After four months, according to past cycles, after the bull tail market starts, it typically takes about 5-6 months to reach the peak. This means that if we rely on the trend of the last cycle to guide us at this moment, the final peak may appear in the next two months.
Although some well-known analysts believe that, given the current economic environment and institutional holdings, this round of bull run could extend into the first half of 2026, and BTC and ETH might even experience a "long and exhausting" bull run, this statement has a certain probability. However, many retail investors actually do not hold the leading two currencies. Even the seasoned investors were significantly impacted when ETH saw a large retracement in the first half of the year, leaving behind a large portion of them. Therefore, in response to this expectation, I suggest that you create a data model based on your own positions. First, set a target selling price based on your expectations, and on the premise of ensuring profit, use a phased DCA strategy to gradually sell. Even if the highest price you anticipated does not materialize, leaving some positions to hold these two currencies long-term may not be a bad thing. Perhaps during Trump's term, you will be surprised!
What everyone is actually most afraid of is that there will be no obvious altcoin season next, or that the altcoins in hand will be fleeting, or that they will remain stagnant. I have always believed that there will still be an altcoin season. Previously, I have discussed this a few times in the dynamics, and also chatted intermittently with some friends in the comments section. Everyone believes that the probability of an altcoin bull run occurring is quite high. However, if you haven't positioned yourself in mainstream altcoins now, the upcoming time will likely have little to do with you.
Why do I still judge that there will be a bull run in the altcoin season? I have organized my thoughts and will analyze from the following four directions why the altcoin market in the fourth quarter of 2025 is still worth looking forward to.
Firstly, from the perspective of market sentiment, the consensus remains clear: every round of bull run is driven by BTC attracting funds, which then flow to ETH, and eventually spread to smaller market cap altcoins. This is not a man-made operation, but a natural phenomenon resulting from the combined effects of market consensus and human greed. The cyclical nature of this capital flow will not change due to individual will. As long as there is a consensus on the cyclical nature of bull and bear markets, and as long as investors still experience greed and fear, altcoin season will definitely arrive.
You might say that this is now a bull run led by institutions, and the institutions look down on those altcoins. After experiencing the market in 2024-2025, I increasingly realize that the world is just a makeshift stage, and institutions vary in size; institutions are also greedy. Are the funds under Trump considered institutions? Is Meitu Xiuxiu considered an institution? Even our disguised GJ team, are they institutions? The games played by institutions create market volatility, and the games played by institutions also increase the circulation of market chips. As long as there is heat and liquidity, capital tends to seek profit.
Capital always chases the maximization of returns, and a substantial amount of institutional funds has clearly accelerated the layout of the crypto market, especially since May, when there has been an unprecedented inflow of funds into projects related to the ETH ecosystem. This directly increases market confidence and demand. When the valuations of BTC and ETH reach a high level, large-scale capital investments will drive up coin prices, but the return on investment continues to decline. At this point, capital will inevitably turn to smaller market cap altcoins that are easier to achieve massive short-term gains. This balance between returns and risks is the core logic driving the continuous flow of funds. Of course, it has been reminded several times a long time ago that institutional funds are likely to flow only into mainstream altcoins with higher market caps, foundational applications, high market holding, good narratives, and a certain number of years, especially those with attributes of the United States that meet the ETF listing.
Secondly, technology is the key factor driving the continuous flow of funds, as market capital always chases the latest hotspots. Each bull run brings new technology drivers and conceptual narratives, and new starting points attract the attention of retail investors, providing ample space for speculation in the altcoin market. Although the emergence of inscriptions and MEME trends in 2024 has sacrificed a large number of retail investors, as we enter 2025, we can clearly feel the gradual rise of hotspots in various fields such as high-performance supply chain expansion solutions (L1 public chains), the integration of AI and blockchain, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). These areas will provide new market expectations, making it easier to attract incremental funds from outside the market, seeking the next potential asset for a hundredfold growth.
Thirdly, reviewing the market trends from the end of 2023 to now, from the perspective of chip distribution, many high-quality mainstream altcoins have completed the accumulation of chips, especially new public chains or high market cap functional coins. Large funds should have completed their low-position chip layout through a year and a half of pump and dump, which gives me a relatively clear and definite judgment on future trends.
Referencing the mainstream cryptocurrencies of XRP, TRX, SUI, BNB from 2024, and observing ETH, ADA, LINK, UNI, LTC, AAVE, DOGE, PEPE, etc. from 2025, if you can hold firmly at this moment, as long as you don't have overly high expectations and patiently wait for changes in market sentiment and opportunities to resonate, there is a high probability that you can steadily and easily capture a 1-2 times bull run. However, it should be noted that now is not the best time to enter the market. Friends who have been paying attention to my updates for a long time will understand the reasons behind this.
Of course, you can also choose to strategically position yourself in some leading projects in the ETH layer 2 ecosystem or other sectors, including ondo, op, ena, arb, pol, fil, ton, and so on. However, this type of cryptocurrency, which relies on market hotspots and capital rotation, carries much higher risks compared to the earlier high market capitalization established projects.
As for why XRP, SOL, BNB, TRX and the like are not recommended, it's because they have already been pumped in 2024, and the upward potential is limited, making the cost-performance ratio not very high.
Fourth, from a macro perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is close to 95%, and the tariffs from the trade war have also been postponed. There is a noticeable trend of liquidity easing in the global economy, with major central banks continuously releasing liquidity. As I write this, I've also seen news about the presidents of Russia and Ukraine discussing a ceasefire. Aside from the interest rate hike in Japan, I can't think of any other potential black swan events in the future, so in the coming months, the overall funding environment in the market should be relatively loose, which will undoubtedly enhance the risk appetite of institutional funds.
When ETH hits the 5000 mark and surges with volume (similar to the phase when BTC broke 73,000 and surged towards 100,000), and several altcoins on the market rise by 100%-300% in a single day, retail investors will inevitably experience FOMO. Mainstream altcoins with a higher level of consensus are likely to become the asset class that benefits the most in this environment.
The signs of this situation have actually appeared; the rise of OKB can be seen as a signal to start. Even if the current market experiences a relatively extreme 20%-30% retracement, I firmly believe that the overall direction will not change. The bull run is not over; it just needs to be extended. The high peaks of BTC and ETH are likely to appear again, and a local altcoin bull run will inevitably come.
Of course, opportunities and risks coexist, and everyone has different personalities and positions, so I would still advise you to carefully consider rational decisions. Only by thoroughly thinking through your operational plan and seriously simulating your operational strategy can you possibly seize your bull run profits in the end.
Remember, the bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish ☕ I enjoy walking with friends who have high awareness. If you have different opinions, feel free to chat in the comments.
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