Предупреждение о рисках инсайдерской торговли на рынке прогнозов: моральные границы и юридические риски сосуществуют

【Block Rhythm】The rapid development of prediction markets has attracted numerous participants, but the accompanying risks cannot be overlooked. Recently, seasoned industry veterans have publicly expressed strong disapproval of insider trading behavior in prediction markets.

This industry voice has pointed out a critical issue: if insider trading is gradually accepted in prediction markets, it may be redefined as a “feature” rather than a flaw. Such a shift would be extremely dangerous.

Specifically, on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, once someone trades with non-public information, such behavior already constitutes insider trading. Interestingly, even if one merely catches a whiff of non-public information, they should resolutely avoid the related markets.

From a legal perspective, insider traders may be lucky to escape punishment, but they could also find themselves in legal jeopardy. Some have already faced serious consequences for insider trading on prediction markets. Taking such risks is simply not worth it.

More importantly, there are ethical considerations. Knowingly profiting without risk by speculating on such opportunities is essentially a manifestation of moral degradation—extracting profits from ordinary participants lacking informational advantages. Such trading methods are unacceptable from any angle. The long-term healthy development of prediction markets requires participants to collectively maintain compliance awareness and ethical standards.