Market Prediction Sparks Heated Discussion: Senior Traders Estimate Short-Term BTC Rebound Potential Up to 10% Based on On-Chain Data and Fundamentals How to interpret on-chain data? In the past week, whale addresses holding over 1000 coins increased their holdings by 15%. What does this mean? Exchange wallet balances have fallen to their lowest point this year, indicating a significant easing of selling pressure. Network activity is on the rise, hash rate remains stable or slightly increasing, all signs pointing to one conclusion: long-term players are quietly accumulating. Interesting technical observations: The 50-week moving average is currently around 65K. Historical backtests show that this line has over an 80% success rate in bouncing back. When the price returns near this level, it often presents a good entry point. Fundamentals and Market Logic An interesting phenomenon has been observed—previous aggressive "60-day doubling" claims are gradually becoming more rational, shifting to "10% rebound." Behind this is capital reallocation across assets. Some funds are rotating back from all-time highs in stocks, real estate, and precious metals, while BTC, after dropping 35%, is beginning to show relative value. However, risks must also be considered—there are many long positions with 40x leverage in the market, which suggests volatility could come quickly and intensely. In the short term, the market remains optimistic about capital flow, but don’t let emotions cloud judgment. My Perspective On-chain accumulation + technical support levels + capital rotation—these three dimensions resonate. In the next 1-2 weeks, BTC has at least a 10% rebound potential, with retesting the 50-week moving average being a reasonable target. These predictions are not baseless; the data is speaking. My approach is to increase spot holdings and wait for the market to give answers. Be cautious of leverage frenzy, but don’t miss clear logical opportunities out of fear. #比特币流动性 is also doing similar accumulation, worth paying attention to.

#比特币流动性 43 days, I turned 2000U into 60000U. The story is more straightforward than you think. The starting point was 2000U. Not carefully prepared startup capital, but the leftover lonely chips in the account after consecutive limit-downs. At that moment, I realized one thing: Either this time I completely change, or this account becomes invalid. So I gave myself a strict command— Don’t aim to make money quickly, don’t bet on who rises or falls, just keep the account alive until next year. The core is two words: survive. And the secret to survival is to hold every penny’s risk tightly. **First move: Don’t concentrate, diversify** I didn’t go all-in with 2000U, but split it into 5 parts. Each part is 400U, which is my single-entry limit. Only use one part at a time. Sounds stupid, but this stupid rule saved me. No adding positions, no all-in, no being driven by emotions. The account must always keep 80% of the bullets—this is my promise to myself. **Second move: Calculate death first, then think about survival** Before each trade, I only ask myself two questions: What’s the maximum I could lose if I’m wrong? If I’m right, how much can I earn? Stop-loss is set at 3%—no more than 12U loss per trade. Take-profit is set between 6% and 10%—earning 24 to 40U per trade makes me happy. No one here dreams of 10x returns. The goal is clear: turn probability into an advantage. **Third move: Let data speak, don’t rely on intuition** About 70 trades in and out per month. I won’t boast about a high win rate, it’s actually around 60%. But the math is simple: 28 losses: 28 × (-12U) ≈ -336U 42 wins: 42 × (+35U) ≈ +1470U Net profit over 1100U+. Repeat this every month. No miracles, only compound interest working slowly. **I only defend three lines, never surrender** ✓ Enter the market with a stop-loss set, automatic as breathing ✓ Exit once the target is reached, no greed, no waiting for miracles ✓ Only trade types I understand 100% (I only do breakouts, avoid messy K-line patterns) No staying up late watching charts, no chasing hot trends, no fighting with candlesticks. When there’s no clear signal, I stand aside with an empty position. **Most people lose money in the market. Where is the real problem?** It’s not about technical skills. It’s that once the position size gets messy, even if the direction is correct, you can blow up. Easily correct once, but then don’t know how to hold onto profits. Talking about turning around every day, but hands keep sending money into the market. **The only bet I make** Is not on where the market will go. But on whether I can follow the rules every day, every trade. 43 days, 2000U becomes 60000U. This is not about being brave, but about completely quitting the gambler’s mindset. People who understand risk control can slowly crawl out of the ruins with just 1000U. Those who trade on intuition, even with 100,000U, will end up the same—account zero. Opportunities are never lacking in the market. What’s lacking are—disciplined traders who can survive until the next cycle.

#数字资产市场动态 Bitcoin Technical Analysis Tracking: Daily Timeframe Direction Judgment From the daily chart, BTC is still operating within a clear downward channel (the blue trendline is clearly visible), and no reversal technical signals have appeared yet. In the past 30 days, multiple bounce lows have formed around $85,000, indicating that there is indeed capital supporting this area. However, the problem is—each rebound is weak, with frequent long upper shadows, and trading volume has not followed through. The candlestick patterns over the past two weeks have evolved into a sideways consolidation pattern, with bears and bulls repeatedly tugging, and the bulls have yet to launch a strong attack. The time cost has accumulated over a month, and this situation cannot continue indefinitely. From a technical perspective, this is characteristic of a "weak rebound in a downtrend"—it appears to rebound but is actually consuming time and funds. The current consolidation has entered the end of a triangle pattern, and the direction choice is imminent. **Upward route**: Only after breaking through the resistance zone of 93500-90500 can we talk about a strong rebound. After breaking through, it may head towards the $100,000 level, where many trapped positions are located. But be cautious—if the price surges and closes with a long upper shadow, it is likely a trap. **Downward route**: If the daily close drops below 85000, it signals the start of a new downward wave, with the target near 75000. **Recent operational references**: - Short-term resistance focus: 90000-91000 - Short-term support focus: 86500-85500 The bottom line is clear: break and establish, do not break and establish. Sideways trading is no longer the answer; the time to choose a direction is approaching. Keep a close eye on the performance at these key levels.