#比特币反弹 $80k Fails to Materialize! Bitcoin Rises and Falls, Ethereum Drops Below 2300, Over 25k Liquidated, When Will the Bulls and Bears Rest?
Bitcoin once surged to $79,388, just a step away from the $80k mark, then sharply reversed and fell below $77,000. Ethereum broke below the $2,300 level. Behind this nearly dramatic market movement, the geopolitical game in the Strait of Hormuz, inflation alarms from soaring oil prices, and continuous inflows of ETF funds over ten days form a complete script of the bulls and bears battle. As hundreds of millions of dollars in options settle today, the market’s direction choice is entering a countdown phase.
1. Market Overview: $80k Fails to Materialize, Both Coins Retreat
On April 24, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rollercoaster of rising and falling. Bitcoin (BTC) once rallied to a high of $79,388, just about $600 shy of the $80k threshold, but the upward momentum could not continue. The price then quickly retreated below $77,000, with an early low of $76,997, currently around $77,800. Over the past 24 hours, it declined approximately 0.84% to 1.47%, with weekly gains narrowing to about 4%. Ethereum (ETH) experienced more volatility. It opened Wednesday at $2,375.12, briefly surged over 2% along with Bitcoin, but then retraced, breaking below $2,300. It now hovers around $2,320, down 3.35% in 24 hours, turning the weekly trend downward. The total crypto market cap is about $2.59 trillion, Bitcoin’s market share remains near 60%, Ethereum’s around 10.8%, both slightly down from the previous day, with overall risk assets under pressure. Altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin also weakened, with funds heavily concentrated in Bitcoin, forming a “one-way” rally pattern.
In terms of liquidation data, total liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours reached $257 million, with longs accounting for as much as 70% (about $181 million). The largest liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid, with a single loss of up to $3.58 million.
2. Drivers of Rise and Suppression: Positive and Negative Forces
The “heroes” behind the rally: ETF Funds’ Massive Inflows
The core driver of Bitcoin’s surge is the continuous large-scale inflow of ETF funds. As of the morning of April 24, 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of about $335 million in a single day, with monthly inflows surpassing $2.1 billion, and since the start of the year, net inflows around $1.8 billion. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $246 million, with a total inflow of $1.9 billion over the past month.
For Ethereum, spot ETF funds recorded net inflows for the tenth consecutive day, totaling over $96.4 million, led by BlackRock’s ETHA with $53.6 million. Meanwhile, whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated over 56k BTC in the past ten days, indicating ongoing on-chain accumulation. This structural repair of funds is seen as the biggest positive signal since the beginning of the year.
Where does the “ceiling” of suppression come from?
However, Bitcoin’s near-term failure to break through $80k is also clearly influenced by factors:
1. Strait of Hormuz Deadlock Suppresses Risk Sentiment
Trump claims “the U.S. has full control of the Strait of Hormuz,” but Iran links reopening the strait directly to compliance with U.S. ceasefire terms. Market expectations of diplomatic progress before April 30 have plummeted from 8% to 3%. Meanwhile, Iran is levying “toll fees” payable in cryptocurrency for passing ships, embedding Bitcoin into the global energy settlement system in an unprecedented way. This structural change is a long-term potential positive but also increases short-term market uncertainty. Oil prices respond accordingly, with Brent crude approaching $95, and WTI rising to about $95, with energy costs continuing to climb.
2. Inflation Warnings and Rate Hikes
The Pentagon recently warned in confidential briefings that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz would take at least six months, and gasoline and oil prices could remain high through the mid-term elections. Persistently high energy costs leave little room for the Fed to cut interest rates. CME FedWatch shows the probability of holding rates in May has risen to 93.9%, while the chance of a rate cut in June has fallen to 58.7%. Market expectations for rate cuts this year have significantly shrunk.
3. The “Sell-Trigger” at $80,100
Glassnode analysis indicates that $80,100 is a key “psychological trigger”—once Bitcoin surpasses this level, multiple mechanisms may trigger selling pressure: the cost basis of short-term holders, the “54% profit line” at the end of the previous bear market rebound, and the short-term profit surge to about $4.4 million per hour could stack up. From the market behavior, Bitcoin encountered a sharp downward reversal as it approached $80,000, aligning closely with this technical analysis.
4. Persistent Negative Funding Rates, Growing Sell Pressure
The derivatives market has experienced negative funding rates for about 47 consecutive days, indicating that short positions have been dominant for a long time, and market fears at current prices have not dissipated. Even at high levels, shorting remains profitable, serving as one of the resistance factors for upward movement.
Spot demand is also weak. CryptoQuant’s research head pointed out that this rally was mainly driven by perpetual futures. If traders start taking profits and spot demand continues to shrink, a correction risk looms.
3. Options Expiry Approaching, Market Holds Coins, Waiting for Direction
Today, options worth approximately $9.87 billion in nominal value for Bitcoin and Ethereum will expire—10,900 BTC options (max pain at $72,000) and 563k ETH options (max pain at $2,200). Implied volatility (IV) continues to decline, with BTC’s main expiry IV dropping below 40%, while ETH remains around 60%. The market has not shown excessive FOMO, but post-expiry volatility recovery will influence subsequent trends. Based on liquidation data, if BTC breaks above $81,848, major exchanges could see $1.56 billion in short liquidations; if ETH breaks above $2,425, short liquidations could reach $192837465657.48T. Conversely, if prices fall further, long positions face large liquidation risks. The key zone is between $72,000 and $74,000.
4. Future Outlook: Three Catalysts for the Coming Week
U.S.-Iran Negotiation Developments (Late April to Early May): April 30 is a potential key date for diplomatic progress; whether a concrete framework emerges will influence risk appetite.
Q1 GDP and PCE Data (April 30): The U.S. Q1 GDP initial estimate, March PCE, and employment cost index will be released consecutively, directly affecting the Fed’s policy expectations.
Can ETH Hold $2,300?: Ethereum retreated from $2,375 to $2,316 on Thursday. Whether it can defend the $2,300 level will determine if its short-term technical strength can continue.
Selected Institutional Views
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas: “All the fund flow indicators for Bitcoin spot ETFs have turned positive for the first time in months. ‘They are green, not red,’ indicating that the big-cycle capital allocation has not reversed.”
Glassnode: Emphasizes that $80,100 is a triple sell pressure trigger; whether buying can absorb the supply above will decide the success or failure of this breakout.
CryptoQuant Research Head Julio Moreno: The recent rally was driven by perpetual futures, with spot demand still shrinking. “If traders start taking profits and spot demand continues to decline, a correction risk is imminent.”
5. Trading Recommendations
Short-term traders: Focus on $72,000 support (max pain for options) and $80,100 resistance for Bitcoin. Post-expiry, watch for volatility recovery. If it effectively breaks below $72,000, beware of deeper corrections. For Ethereum, monitor $2,200 support and $2,425 resistance; a break above the latter could trigger large-scale short liquidations.
Medium to long-term holders: The current structural repair of funds (ETF monthly inflows over $2.1 billion) is the most positive signal since the start of the year. Coupled with USDT’s market cap reaching a record high of $188.8 billion, the potential buying power of stablecoins cannot be ignored. Areas below $70,000 have long-term value, and a phased deployment is recommended. After the $25k options expiry, evaluate structural accumulation opportunities in Q2.
Risk Warnings:
Strait of Hormuz Uncertainty: There is a clear gap between Trump’s statements and Iran’s stance, making the short-term market highly sensitive.
Inflation Expectations: If oil prices stay at high levels around $95, the Fed’s room to cut rates will further shrink.
Post-Expiry Volatility: Gamma effects dissipate after options expiry, and the market may face new short-term volatility directions.
Leverage Risks: Current contract positions remain high; rapid price swings can trigger chain liquidations.
