Today's BTC strategy is here. Please credit Zhiyi Lunbi when sharing.
1. Trend Indicator (4-hour chart)
Currently, the price remains below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that the medium to long-term trend is still under pressure. The 4-hour chart shows that BTC is in a convergence zone, with core volatility narrowing to $67,000-$68,500. If it fails to break through the $68,500 resistance zone, the probability of a decline increases.
2. Wave Theory
From the wave structure, the recent small-scale rebound appears to be an adjustment of the fourth wave. The current fourth wave rebound may have already ended, and the market is facing potential risk of a fifth wave decline. If the fifth wave is confirmed, the downward target could test previous lows or even lower.
3. Key Support and Resistance
Key Support Zone: $66187 - $66,500. This is the key support band on the 4-hour chart. Holding this area gives bulls a chance to mount a counterattack; if the daily close clearly breaks below this level, it is highly likely to test $62433 support.
Key Resistance Zone: $68200 - $69,407. This is the so-called "blue box resistance zone." Previously, the price retreated near $69,407 due to lack of buyers. Currently, this area has become a strong resistance zone. Only a volume-supported move above $69,400 can reverse the short-term downward trend.
4. Momentum Indicators
The 4-hour RSI (Relative Strength Index) has turned back to neutral after entering the overbought zone during the previous rebound, indicating that upward momentum is waning, making short-term breakout more difficult.
Today’s Contract Trading Strategy
Given that the market is in a state of "unchanged bearish structure but with support below," today’s strategy focuses on range-bound high sell and low buy, but with close attention to breakout opportunities for short positions.
Strategy 1: Shorting at Resistance (Main idea)
Entry Range: $68,200 - $68,500 (preferably enter near $68,500).
Stop Loss: $69,000 (exit if the price effectively breaks above the previous high).
First Take Profit: $67,200.
Second Take Profit: $66,500 (can hold if it breaks below $66,600).
· Logic: The 4-hour bearish structure remains intact, and the probability of a pullback from the upper boundary of the box and resistance zone is high.
Strategy 2: Long Position for Range Play (Control Position Size)
Entry Range: $67,000 - $67,200 (light position for a small long).
Stop Loss: $66,500.
Take Profit Target: $67,900 - $68,000.
Logic: Although the trend is bearish, as long as it does not volume-break below $66,600, there may be short-term support after a dip, aiming to profit from a rebound within the range.
Strategy 3: Breakout Chase (Focus)
Trigger Condition: 4-hour candle closes clearly below $66,500.
Entry Point: Enter short on a rebound failure or market order.
Stop Loss: Above $67,200.
Take Profit Target: Near $62,400.
Logic: $66,500 is the last line of defense for the short-term bulls. Once it is lost, a new wave of decline is likely to begin.