On April 30, Japan’s Monex Securities pointed out that in view of the sharp rise in global uncertainty, the Bank of Japan will almost certainly keep the policy rate unchanged next week. The impact of Trump’s April 2 tariff policy has already killed the prospects for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in the near term. The focus of the meeting is likely to be on the outlook report. Inflation remains elevated, and wage negotiations confirm that price pressures remain embedded in wage growth dynamics. How policymakers balance inflation with heightened global uncertainty will be key to the future path of interest rates. We still expect the BoJ to raise rates again later this year, and our current low confidence in a September rate hike will be revisited after the meeting.
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