Just yesterday, you still thought the world was going to be peaceful, oil prices were going to crash, and Bitcoin was going to hit 100k.
But what happened? In less than 24 hours, Iran directly slammed the table: "Ceasefire agreement? You’ve already violated three clauses."
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Oil prices bounced back to $97.
The market was played. You were played too.
But do you know what’s the most heartbreaking part?
Bitcoin didn’t crash.
It remains firmly above $70k, as if nothing happened.
Something’s wrong. Too wrong.
The "euphoria" of the ceasefire lasted only one day.
On Wednesday, the whole world was celebrating.
The US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, oil prices instantly plummeted 10%, and Bitcoin jumped from 67k to 72,700. Everyone was shouting: "Bull run, back to the moon!"
I was excited too. But there was always a voice in my head saying:
Don’t rush, let the bullets fly for a while.
Sure enough, the bullets flew less than 48 hours later.
Iran’s speaker of the parliament directly blasted: You Israel have already violated three clauses of the ceasefire agreement. I didn’t specify which three, but I said you violated them.
And then? Israel’s attacks on Lebanon didn’t stop at all.
The Strait of Hormuz? Iran said “allow coordinated passage,” but almost no oil tankers dared to pass through.
Is this a ceasefire?
This is a delaying tactic.
The market was played, but Bitcoin’s performance was very “abnormal.”
Just look at the data:
- Bitcoin is currently at $70,981, down only 0.5% in 24 hours
- But this week, it’s up 6.1%
- Ethereum down 2.6%, Solana down 3.1%, XRP down 3%, Dogecoin down 3.4%
- MSCI Asia-Pacific Index down 0.9%, S&P 500 futures also pointing to a 0.2% decline
See that?
Global stocks are vomiting, altcoins are falling, but Bitcoin remains steady.
This is not normal.
Why? Because Bitcoin has been bouncing between $65k and $73k over the past few months. Every time it hits the bottom of the range, it bounces back; every time it hits the top, it gets hammered down.
But now? It’s testing the upper half of the range.
Not the bottom, the upper half.
Market confidence in Bitcoin is no longer just about “hedging.”
The real scary thing isn’t war, but “each doing their own thing.”
Let me tell you something deeper.
The biggest risk globally right now isn’t whether Iran and Israel fight or not. It’s—
Central banks are all doing their own thing.
The Fed says: Inflation risk is still rising, interest rates need to stay high longer.
Japan says: Wages have increased, so we need to raise rates.
Europe and the UK are tightening too.
An analyst described it vividly: this is “non-coordinated tightening.”
In plain language:
> In the past, everyone pumped liquidity together, then withdrew it together, with coordinated steps, so the market could predict.
> Now? You tighten yours, I tighten mine, no one discusses it.
> The result? Interest rate expectations are like wild dogs running loose, no one can control them.
This is deadly for risk assets.
Because Bitcoin, stocks, and altcoins fear uncertainty the most.
And the current scenario is: geopolitical uncertainty + monetary policy uncertainty = double whammy.
You thought the ceasefire was the start of a bull market, but it was just an opportunity to escape the top.
Bitcoin not falling isn’t because it’s not afraid of war, but because what’s more terrifying than war— is not knowing who will suddenly hike rates tomorrow.
A Bitcoin at $70k is neither bottom nor top. It’s a signal: smart money is waiting, fools are rushing, and retail investors are asking, “Can I still buy?”
The Strait of Hormuz is closed, is your position still open?
What’s next? Let’s be real.
I’m not hyping, nor scaring you.
The reality is:
1. Bitcoin is still in the $65,000-$73,000 big range; it’s not truly bullish until it breaks out.
2. Although the ceasefire agreement has cracked, neither side truly wants full-scale war. Oil bounced back to $97, but still below $100.
3. The biggest risk remains central bank moves. Especially the Fed. As long as they say “higher for longer,” risk assets won’t rebound.
My judgment:
In the short term, Bitcoin will fluctuate between 68k and 73k.
If the ceasefire completely breaks down, it might retest 67k or even 65k.
But if it can hold above 68k for more than two weeks, that’s a real sign of strength.
My advice to everyone:
- Don’t chase highs, don’t FOMO.
- Don’t go all-in on one news story.
- Don’t sell in panic because of a piece of news.
- Patience is more valuable than cleverness in today’s market.
Bitcoin is still Bitcoin; what’s changing is your greed.
A 24-hour ceasefire breach is nothing.
If your position gets wiped out in 24 hours, that’s real trouble.
Stay steady, don’t be reckless. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战 $BTC $ETH
