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市場這些年變化太快了——技術在變,資產在變,敘事在變,從股票到加密,從機構入場到算法交易,玩法越來越複雜。
但你會發現,有一樣東西始終沒變:人性。
牛市裡,人們永遠相信“這次不一樣”;下跌時,又總覺得世界要結束。道氏理論講趨勢,其實背後就是群體情緒的循環;波浪理論看似複雜,本質也不過是貪婪與恐懼的節奏反覆。價格在變,K線在變,但推動市場的,始終是同一套情緒腳本。
所以真正的交易優勢,不在預測未來,而在理解人性。市場會升級,但人性的弱點,從來不會版本更新。